Hail in Oklahoma, July 14, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
307 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS KICKING OFF STORMS MOSTLY JUST SOUTH OF
RANDALL/ARMSTRONG COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF ROUGHLY
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS LIKE
HEREFORD, BOOTLEG, OR CANYON BUT THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON PULSE
ACTIVITY WILL STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF AMARILLO. ANOTHER AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN ERN CO/WRN KS AND IT WILL MOVE S AND E INTO
THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. THIS ROUND COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND HAVE TRENDED BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES THAT DIRECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THREATS-WISE...HEAVY RAIN IS STILL THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES AT TIMES, DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS, AND GENERALLY
SLOW STORM MOTIONS. HAVE NOT ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH DUE TO
MOSTLY DRY ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED NATURE OF
EXPECTED HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
SEVERE CELLS WITH GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ALREADY REPORTED IN KS ARE
EVIDENCE OF THIS. FCST MLCAPE VALUES OF UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

SIMPSON

TOMORROW AND BEYOND...
LOOKS LIKE THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE ITS FINAL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOK TO INVADE
THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTH, BUT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF TILL SUNSET OR LATER. THINK STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL IN
COLORADO/KANSAS AND MOVE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. AGAIN THINK THE GREATEST THREAT COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT ALREADY GOT RAIN LAST NIGHT
AND PLACES THAT GET MORE RAIN TONIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINK
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES LEFT IN THE
AREA, WHICH PROBABLY WONT TAKE SHAPE UNTIL THE AT LEAST 24 HOURS
BEFORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THINK STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS DAY AS WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LEADS TO DECENT
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE CAPE COULD LEAD TO
ORGANIZED STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. WHILE AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF
US THINGS DEFINITELY COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, SO WE
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT IT EVOLVES.

WE WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT STARTING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND SOME RIDGING BUILDS IN.
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SMALL KICKER OF A SHORTWAVE MIGHT MOVE ACROSS AND
BRING PRECIP NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

MOULTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                60  80  63  83  60 /  50  40  70  60  70
BEAVER OK                  59  82  61  77  60 /  40  40  70  70  70
BOISE CITY OK              59  81  62  81  58 /  60  40  70  50  50
BORGER TX                  64  82  66  83  61 /  50  40  70  60  70
BOYS RANCH TX              64  83  66  87  63 /  60  40  60  50  40
CANYON TX                  61  80  63  85  62 /  50  40  60  60  60
CLARENDON TX               63  81  63  81  62 /  40  40  70  60  70
DALHART TX                 61  82  62  84  60 /  60  40  60  50  40
GUYMON OK                  60  81  63  79  60 /  50  40  70  60  70
HEREFORD TX                62  80  62  86  61 /  60  40  60  50  40
LIPSCOMB TX                62  81  63  78  61 /  40  40  70  70  70
PAMPA TX                   61  80  62  78  59 /  40  40  70  60  70
SHAMROCK TX                63  82  63  78  62 /  30  40  70  70  70
WELLINGTON TX              65  85  65  82  64 /  30  40  70  70  70

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

09/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
319 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-150900-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
319 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS UP TO
70 MPH AND HAIL UP THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS BEING TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 55 MPH ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.