Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, June 18, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL WAVER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ASHTABULA AND CRAWFORD PA COUNTIES PROMPTED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
THIS MORNING FOR THOSE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST INTO PA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A FLOOD WARNING WAS ALSO
ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN SUMMIT AND NORTHERN STARK COUNTIES BASED ON
REPORTS OF FLOODING WITH STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. THE
REST OF THE CWA IS QUIET FOR THE MOMENT...BUT EXPECTING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION TO OCCUR DURING THE EARLY TO MID- AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS MIGRATED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ERIE. THE SETUP APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SITUATION CLOSELY AS STORMS BEGIN TO
BLOSSOM. INSTABILITY IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WITH CAPE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG IN THE EAST AND APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN THE
WEST. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONE OBVIOUS LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WILL ASSESS HOW THAT PLAYS OUT UPSTREAM AND APPLY
TO OUR LOCAL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKE.  CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE
FRONT.

AFTER THIS THE MODEL TRENDS SIMILAR BUT EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN QUESTION.  MODELS CONTINUE TO STALL
THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...THEN LIFT IT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HOT AND HUMID...WHILE NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING IN ACCORDING TO THE GFS. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH. THE MODELS ARE TRYING
TO HINT THAT SUNDAY COULD BE DRY...SO LOWERED THE POPS A LITTLE. THE
ECMWF IS DRY ON MONDAY BUT BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS OPPOSITE. AT THIS TIME WITH QUESTIONS
DIDN'T MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DAYTIME HEATING AND AN APPROACHING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP INTO
THE EVENING AIDED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM
LAKE ERIE MAY LESSEN THE CHANCE FOR TSRA AT CLE AND ERI IF THE
STORMS ARE SCATTERED BUT IF THE COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT REACHES
WESTERN LAKE ERIE THEN THE STORMS WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF
CROSSING THE LAKE UNAFFECTED. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT AFFECT THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT COULD BE LOCALLY SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOP TONIGHT IN FOG AND
LOWER CIGS. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TAKE
PLACE AFTER 14Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS MORNING FOG/MIST.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL BE FOR SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE
EAST...AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKE CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHER THEN THAT...NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS
TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
FLOW WILL BE WEAK. A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AND THIS
MAY MEAN SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KIELTYKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
200 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

OHZ007>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-191800-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
200 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ003-006-017-191800-
LUCAS-WOOD-HANCOCK-
200 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-191800-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
200 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.