Drought in New Mexico, August 1 to 31, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LAST LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SANTA ROSA SOUTHWEST TO
SRR WITH TRANSPORT DIRECTION SOUTH AND EAST...WITH ACTIVITY
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. TAFS WRITTEN WITH VCSH HOLDING SPOTS FOR
TRAILING OR LEADING THUNDERSTORMS...AND GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
NEARBY THUNDER FLAGGED WITH VCTS GROUP. IFR CIGS IN TAFS FOR LVS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT LAYERS AT OTHER EASTERN POINTS SIGNALING
POSSIBLE MVFR EXCURSIONS OVERNIGHT IN LOW CLOUD REGIME. MT
OBSCURATION OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH
15Z. THUNDER REDEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM FROM 19Z
ONWARD FRIDAY...WITH ACTIVITY PERSISTING LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS IT
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS..AND OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1029 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WORDING FROM ZFP. MOST ACTIVITY HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE WATCH AREA. CLASSIC QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH STRATIFORM RAIN ON BACKSIDE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE/MOVE SEWD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER THE AREA. TODAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE STORMS ARE INITIATING. THESE STORMS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE NEW STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A BRIEF UPTICK
IN STORMS IS EXPECTED IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND A WEAKNESS IN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE ROBUST
MOISTURE TO BE EXPLOITED...AND CONSEQUENTLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF STORMS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
BOUTS OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES POOLING AND
UNDULATING OVER A LARGE CENTRAL SWATH OF NM. THIS WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST VERY CHALLENGING...TRYING TO PINPOINT FLASH FLOODING
THREAT WITH SUCH HIGH VARIABILITY ON ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ALONG WITH EVOLVING STORM MOTIONS/TRACKS. BACK
DOOR FRONT HAS BEEN A CATALYST FOR STORMS IN WESTERN NM THUS FAR
WITH NEW STORMS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. STORMS
HAVE BEEN LESS ORGANIZED AND SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS.

A SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST...MOSTLY TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BULK SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS AS SURFACE WINDS HOLD A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PREVAIL. THE
STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY FAST-PACED IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT
RESIDE...BUT OVER THE GILA AND SURROUNDING AREAS THE MOTION DROPS
OFF TO ALMOST NOTHING. THIS WILL BE A PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR
FLASH FLOODING BASED ON THE SLUGGISH MOTION...BUT AREAS WITHIN THE
EXISTING WATCH ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL OF SEEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL. LOCAL WRF/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS ALL POINT TO HEFTY STORMS
ROLLING INTO TORRANCE/GUADALUPE COUNTIES...SO THIS AREA WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL PEG MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AGAIN FRIDAY...NAMELY FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND THIS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND SLOW DOWN STORM MOTIONS...ADDING TO THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
COLORADO. THIS COULD SPAWN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN NM...MOSTLY IN THE HIGHLANDS. THE REMAINING EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE WITH LI'S OF
1 TO 2 C...AND WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY INITIATING STORMS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NM BEGINS TO FALL BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER THE UPPER GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE EXITING NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TX/OK AND REMAINING
PLAINS AREAS...ESSENTIALLY WEAKENED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT. PWATS WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH SLOW NORTHBOUND STORM
MOTIONS THAT WILL ALLOW SEEPAGE OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.
OVERALL THE NEXT THREE DAYS WILL BE BUSY AND WET WITH DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST REFINEMENTS NECESSARY TO PINPOINT FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL LOW/TROUGH APPEARS TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY LAYING OVER INTO CO AND NORTHERN NM BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD NARROW THE CHANNEL OR PLUME OF
MOISTURE SOME...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO
AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WET PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED OVER
CENTRAL AZ TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE PREVAILING
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME
ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO ALLOWING THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AS AT LEAST ONE OR
MORE DISTURBANCES TRACK NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
UP SLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS
TONIGHT...AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE MORE
ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INVADES THAT REGION. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE AS WELL
FOR MOST AREAS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY BE
RELATIVELY STABLE WITH A DEARTH OF STORMS...WHILE THE WEST AND
CENTRAL LOOK TO BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN.

OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXCELLENT INTO NEXT
WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING MAY OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE
WEST...BUT RIGHT NOW MIN RH VALUES HOVER NEAR 20 PERCENT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND IN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO NOT
GETTING INTO THE CRITICAL RANGE...AND WINDS DON/T APPEAR TO BE
ANYWHERE NEAR THE THRESHOLD EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE
SO FAR BELOW BY NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VENTILATION MAY BE
POOR THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY...AND POOR IN
LOCALIZED AREAS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A STRONGER TROUGH MAY ATTEMPT TO SQUASH THE RIDGE...OR BREAK
UNDERNEATH IT...MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE THE SLIGHT DRYING
TREND IN DAYTIME HUMIDITIES. HOW EXTENDED MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE
IS A BIG QUESTION...WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WE/VE BEEN UNDER FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT DOWN TICK IN STORMS FOR SOME
AREAS...BUT NOT ALL.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

33/52

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NMZ501>540-011200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY. MODELS PAINT SOME OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND JEMEZ MOUNTAINS. THE
FOCUS SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EAST SLOPES THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND GENERALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY BRINGING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD THEN SHIFT
WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING SUBTROPICAL WAVE
MIGRATES NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO STEERING A ROBUST MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING
THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
720 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     HAIL             MORIARTY                35.00N 106.05W
07/31/2014  E0.88 INCH       TORRANCE           NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1401132

50

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
722 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NMZ522-010145-
ESTANCIA VALLEY-
722 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING EAST OF MORIARTY...

AT 720 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR MORIARTY.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL NORTH CENTRAL
TORRANCE COUNTY AND RURAL EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTY.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3508 10598 3504 10586 3500 10586 3499 10584
      3497 10584 3495 10586 3491 10585 3483 10590
      3494 10608
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 294DEG 10KT 3499 10600

50

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
724 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NMZ523-533-010200-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
724 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING TOWARDS THE MILAGRO AREA...

AT 723 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER 19 MILES EAST
OF CLINES CORNERS. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MILAGRO.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 10517 3479 10534 3491 10542 3502 10534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 333DEG 13KT 3494 10535

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
744 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             1 SE SAN GERONIMO       35.57N 105.38W
07/31/2014  E1.00 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1401133

JF