Damaging Wind in Nevada, June 9, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT MON JUN 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM DRY AFTERNOONS AND CLEAR COOL NIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED. A PACIFIC
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEAK INSTABILITY AGAIN GENERATING THE DAILY CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA. AIRMASS IS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PW OF
ONLY 0.25 INCH, BUT IS FORECASTED BY VARIOUS MODELS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR 0.50 INCH THIS EVENING. AS SUCH, CONTINUED A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH 11 PM, AS
12Z NAM/GFS SUGGEST. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR EUREKA AND ELY REVEAL
CLOUD BASES NEAR 500 MB, SO WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING
MORE THAN A SPRINKLE THIS EVENING. AFTER A TOASTY AFTERNOON NEAR
90 DEGREES, NORTHERN NEVADA WILL AGAIN COOL OFF RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IN VERY DRY AIR.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED, TO PERHAPS SCATTERED,
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA.
INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK
CUTOFF LOW FROM THE SW. NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS
SOLUTION NICELY, BUT EVEN 12Z ECMWF HAS A QPF SIGNAL OVER THE SE
ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PW NEAR 0.50 INCH ARGUES FOR MAINLY DRY
CONVECTION, WITH MODEL SOUNDING LCLS NEAR 500 MB. 700 MB FLOW IS
ONLY ABOUT 10 KTS, SO SLOW CELL MOVEMENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME VERY
LIGHT RAINFALL IN A FEW PLACES (MOST LIKELY HIGH TERRAIN). MORE OF
THE SAME ACROSS NORTHERN/NW NEVADA, SUNNY WARM AND DRY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK CUTOFF LOW DISSOLVES INTO NOTHING TO OUR SOUTH.
YET ANOTHER SUNNY, WARM DAY FOR NORTHERN NEVADA, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WHITE PINE/NYE COUNTIES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS, SO INCREASED POP COVERAGE A BIT.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT
REMAINS GOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS TROF DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS. AS THE TROF MOVES INTO UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
FLOW REMAINS DRY...BUT BECOMES FROM THE NORTHWEST. POST FRONTAL
WINDS FRIDAY WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO MOST OF NEVADA.
FOR SATURDAY UPPER FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY...BUT REMAINS DRY. ON
SUNDAY EC MUCH DEEPER WITH TROF WHICH INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE CWA THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE ID-NV BORDER. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AS
TROFS MAINLY BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO NEVADA DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. JH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT KEKO...KWMC...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY AND NRN NYE
COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FIRE DISTRICT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING ISOLATED. KEPT LAL OF 2-3 THROUGH 11 PM.

CANCELLED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FWZ 454/457 FOR TUESDAY.
STILL EXPECTING BREEZY SW TO NW WINDS ACROSS THESE ZONES, WITH A
FEW HOURS WHEN WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 MPH. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO WARRANT A RED FLAG ISSUANCE. REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY, CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED, AND PERHAPS
SCATTERED, THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS FWZ 455, 457 AND 470.
SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY, BUT
COVERAGE IS IN SERIOUS QUESTION (ENOUGH TO CANCEL THE WATCH).
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE GACC, DECIDED STORM MOVEMENT MAY BE
SLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW A BIT OF RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND. SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT WILL ALSO WORK AGAINST ANY DRY LIGHTNING COVERAGE.
FORECASTED LAL OF 2-3 FOR ISOLATED DRY/WET STORMS, WITH LAL OF 4
(SCATTERED, WET) ON ISOLATED HIGHEST TERRAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
LIGHTNING COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS FUELS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO TAKE A SPARK, ESPECIALLY WITH WESTWARD
EXTENT.

WEDNESDAY...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL YIELD ANOTHER
CROP OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY FWZ 455 AND 457. KEPT
COVERAGE ISOLATED WITH LAL OF 2-3 FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY...ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE WESTERN FIRE
DISTRICT FOR EXPECTED CRITICAL WIND/RH. STRONG TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW WILL GENERATE STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY. DRY SLOT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD NEVADA, USHERING IN VERY WARM, VERY DRY AIR
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 90, AND MIN RH OF 5-8%. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE MET, SO ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
EARLY, TO MATCH WFO RENO.

FRIDAY...CRITICAL WIND/RH AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FIRE DISTRICT, AS STRONG TROUGH PASSES
NORTH OF NEVADA.

TURNER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...STREAMS RUNNING OUT OF THE HIGH MOUNTAINS, SUCH AS
LAMOILLE CREEK FLOWING OUT OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS, WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH DUE TO RAPID SNOW MELT THANKS TO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BAT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY.

&&

99/87/87/99