Damaging Wind in Nevada, July 2, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
225 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR WEDNESDAY WILL COOL OFF A FEW
DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DOWN TO MERELY HOT INSTEAD OF
BLISTERING. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER CENTRAL TO
EASTERN TO NORTHEAST NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY...NO REAL RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTNING COULD START FIRES...SO
BE WISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK UPPER SUPPORT...WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WEAK MIDDLE LIFT...LOW PW'S...IT'S A WONDER ANY
REAL CONVECTION CAN GET GOING AT ALL. YET...THE TEMPERATURE IS
SNEAKING UP ON 100 MOST PLACES AND SO JUST SURFACE HEATING IS
DRIVING CU BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN
NEVADA TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL EXPAND TO NORTHERN NEVADA IN THE NEXT
 COUPLE HOURS AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. SO DRY...AND MOVEMENT
SUFFICIENTLY FAST TO NOT WORRY A WHIT ABOUT FLOODING. BIGGEST
PROBLEM WILL BE DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECTING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO NORTHEAST NEVADA
THURSDAY...SAY...NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND THE SANTA ROSA
MOUNTAINS IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...TO EUREKA...TO ELY. SAME ISSUES
TOMORROW WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

ANOTHER ISSUE THURSDAY WILL BE THE INCREASE IN WINDS IN NORTHEAST
NYE COUNTY INTO WHITE PINE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR SOUTHEAST ELKO
COUNTY. NOT DRASTIC SPEEDS WARRANTING AN ADVISORY BUT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ISSUES SHOULD LIGHTNING START A FIRE. AGAIN...HEAT IS THE MAIN
PROBLEM. DO NOT EXPECT HEAT ADVISORIES...BUT IT'S STILL GONNA BE
VERY HOT THURSDAY...IN THE 90S IN VIRTUALLY EVERY INHABITED LOWLAND
VALLEY...WITH EVEN MID 80S IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS. FOR THOSE PLACES
ACCUSTOMED TO COOLING OFF INTO THE 40S AT NIGHT IN JULY...WHICH IS
MANY PLACES IN THE REGION...LOW TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS
MAY BE IN THE 50S WITH EVEN 60S UNDER CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EC/GFS AND GEM ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THE ONLY MAJOR DIFFERENCES ARE THE TIMING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE AND BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AS IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS A BIT COOL WITH 594-595 DAM HIGH
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE UP INTO CENTRAL NEVADA THIS WEEKEND AND SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH AND
WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE EC IS A BIT SLOWLY WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF THE MOISTURE SO STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS. JUST DID SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON THE POPS
AND THEN INCREASED THEM LATER IN THE PERIOD AS ONLY GHOST POPS WERE
INTRODUCED. PWATS WILL CLIMB UP TO .75" AND ABOVE WITH THIS SURGE SO
THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY PROGRESSING
INTO MAINLY WET STORMS AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PWATS
CLIMB TO NEAR ONE INCH.

&&

.AVIATION...A 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
NEAR KEKO AND KELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
ONCE STORMS WIND DOWN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MAIN ISSUE...HOT AND DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A MIX OF WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND REDEVELOP THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THERE IS
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS. SOME RAIN WILL FALL IN
SELECTED SPOTS BUT WILL NOT REACH 0.10". MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE
FAIRLY QUICK...WHICH MEANS LIGHTNING ALONG LONGER PATHS...NO
RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS OVER LARGER AREAS. AS TO ENVIRONMENTAL
WINDS...NOT EXPECTING THEM TO REACH RFW OR WATCH CRITERIA DESPITE
VERY LOW RH. NORTHEAST NYE COUNTY AND WHITE PINE COUNTY AND TO
SOME EXTENT SOUTHEAST ELKO COUNTY WILL HAVE WINDS TO 20-25 MPH
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
OR PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT WARNINGS OR WATCHES. AT LEAST THAT
IS THE THINKING NOW. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

98/90/90/98