Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, July 7, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1059 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AT 19Z. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CU DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO FAR BUT NOTABLY DRIER AIR
BEHIND IT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. CONVERGENCE RATHER
WEAK AS FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING
ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER THIS EVENING AND WASHING OUT
OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE
AREA FOR TONIGHT WHERE RAP MODEL SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL BUT ONLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED IT STORMS DO DEVELOP.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST HELPING TO PUSH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS FOR THE SOUTHERN BORDER AREA MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON
ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS STORMS TAKE ON A WEST-EAST
ORIENTATION JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND DRY FOR TUESDAY AND MOST OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LESS HUMIDITY AROUND AS FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

MOISTURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. SERIES OF ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DURING THE PERIOD INDICATED BY MODELS AS RIDGE
BUILDS AGAIN IN THE WEST WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS FOR
THE AREA PRIMARILY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS MID SUMMER PATTERN
TAKES SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. DRY AIR MOVING IN LOOKS
LIKE IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG MONDAY MORNING...SO DID NOT
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS DESPITE LIGHT WINDS. THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER WITH THE
SLOW MOVING/STALLED FRONT...BUT DID NOT THINK IT WOULD AFFECT
LINCOLN.

MID CLOUDS FL150 ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING...AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND MID LEVEL
FORCING ALONG WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. SCT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. DO MENTION TSRA AT ALL THREE SITES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS AND
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
507 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-071215-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
507 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 105 WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEWARD NEBRASKA TO ONAWA IOWA.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS BORDER AS A WEAK FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVERNIGHT...BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A NEW COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALBION NEBRASKA TO ONAWA
IOWA.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM
BROWNVILLE TO RULO THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
MONDAY EVENING...THEN STORMS SHOULD END ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FROM THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE
NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DEWALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
157 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

NEZ065-066-078-089-070745-
GAGE NE-LANCASTER NE-SEWARD NE-SALINE NE-
157 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GAGE...NORTHERN
SALINE...SOUTHERN SEWARD AND SOUTHERN LANCASTER COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM
CDT...

AT 157 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
FRIEND...OR 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YORK...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRETE...WILBER...HICKMAN...FRIEND...FIRTH...DORCHESTER...CORTLAND...
BEAVER CROSSING...PANAMA...CLATONIA...HALLAM...ROCA...SPRAGUE...
CORDOVA...WALNUT CREEK RECREATION AREA...OLIVE CREEK STATE RECREATION
AREA...BLUE RIVER STATE RECREATION AREA...BLUESTEM STATE RECREATION
AREA...WAGON TRAIN STATE RECREATION AREA AND STAGECOACH STATE
RECREATION AREA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4056 9737 4082 9737 4066 9651 4052 9647
      4040 9668
TIME...MOT...LOC 0657Z 286DEG 39KT 4069 9730

NIETFELD