Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, August 8, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
341 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. MID LEVEL FLOW HAS
INCREASED SOME THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER...WITH THE MERRIMAN PROFILER INDICATING
WINDS SPEEDS NEAR 50 KTS AT H500 MB FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A SCATTERED FASHION ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. MID LEVEL IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE BEST STORM
ORGANIZATION FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY
AXIS CURRENTLY RESIDES...WITH AROUND 2500 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE
PRESENT. WILL CARRY THE HIGHER POPS NEAR 40 PERCENT THOUGH THIS AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD...BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TODAY...SO FEEL THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS SPC HAS OUT FOR WEST CENTRAL  AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
LOOKS GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN NRN UTAH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STORMS DEVELOPING WOULD LIKELY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS OR
TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH AVBL PWS OF 1.25 TO
1.5 INCH. GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. EXPECT
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE LOCATED EAST OF HWY 83 AND SOUTH OF
HWYS 2 AND 91. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH POPS 50 PERCENT MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT IN FOR SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FROM 80 TO 85. STILL A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST...THEN JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FAR EAT AND FAR WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING. THEN FOR MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS WITH EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. FLOW ILL BE
NORTHWEST ALOFT AND A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHERIDAN AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY IN THE LEE OF THE BLACK HILLS
REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL EXTEND ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST IS DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
ALOFT LIFTS NORTHEAST AND LOW LIL JET DEVELOPS. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY.

A RIDGE RUNNER MCS(S) WILL LIKELY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR IN NEBRASKA FOLLOWED BY GFS AND
GEM. POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 30 PERCENT WEST AND 40 PERCENT
EASTERN AREAS. THE UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS. HIGHS
THURSDAY STILL NEAR 90 WEST...COOLING SLIGHTLY TO THE LOW TO MID
80S BY FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MOST CONCENTRATED
AREA FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...LIKELY
IMPACTING THE KVTN TAF SITE. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY NEAR STORMS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
334 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-092045-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
334 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014 /234 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORMS ARE
ALSO CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
BROKEN BOW TO VALENTINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

SNIVELY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
230 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

NEZ094-082015-
WESTERN CHERRY NE-
130 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL 215
PM MDT...

AT 128 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELI...OR 42 MILES EAST OF GORDON...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NENZEL...
  CODY LAKE...
  CODY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

TAYLOR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
315 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

NEZ005-094-082100-
EASTERN CHERRY NE-WESTERN CHERRY NE-
315 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM CDT/300 PM MDT/...

AT 213 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KILGORE...OR 18 MILES WEST OF VALENTINE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CROOKSTON...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 174 AND 186.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TAYLOR