During the late evening hours of Wednesday August 20th, scattered thunderstorms moved into portions of South Central Nebraska from the west. Just after midnight on Thursday the 21st, a possible cell merger resulted in the intensification of a storm over southeastern Buffalo and extreme northern Kearney counties.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
During the late evening hours of Wednesday August 20th, scattered thunderstorms moved into portions of South Central Nebraska from the west. Just after midnight on Thursday the 21st, a possible cell merger resulted in the intensification of a storm over southeastern Buffalo and extreme northern Kearney counties. This storm produced some pockets of wind damage from these areas eastward to near the town of Prosser in northern Adams county, where it continued moving east just south of Interstate 80. Large tree branches were knocked down, a pole barn was damaged and an irrigation pivot was overturned. Much later in the day, during the early evening hours, an arc of thunderstorms developed over North Central Kansas. These storms expanded northward into portions of South Central Nebraska, apparently initiated by an outflow boundary emanating from the initial storms. One storm over York County was strong enough to produce one inch hail.
These storms formed in the vicinity of a wavy frontal boundary that was quasi-stationary which gradually became mobile and advanced east across Nebraska during the daytime hours. The longwave pattern was typical of summer, with a subtropical high over the Gulf Coast states. The flow was low amplitude with a general ridge over the eastern U.S. and a trough over the west. The thermodynamic and momentum environments did change from the overnight hours into the early evening hours. Overnight, mid-level lapse rates were steep (7.5 degrees C/km), resulting in MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. And while 40 knots of upper-level flow existed, the low-level jet of similar magnitude resulted in poor deep layer shear under 30 knots. By early evening, MLCAPE had increased to between 2000 and 3000 J/kg, with mid-level lapse rates a little more marginal, near 7 degrees C/km. Deep layer shear had increased to 30-35 knots.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 20, 6:19 PM CST, 5 hours 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 719 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014 THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS...BUT AM CONSIDERING AN INCREASE TO POPS FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL IS STARTING TO SHOW THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY 9 OR 10 PM. THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE AT 23Z WAS INDICATING A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH MODEST 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND EXPECT THE INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE TO COINCIDE WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014 MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS. MAP ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS COAST...THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THAT BEING SAID...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA IS NOT OVERLY STRONG...ONLY MAXING OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR 39000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE...TROUGHS...AND PERTURBATION...AS WELL AS ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING FROM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IN THE PACIFIC...INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...BUT THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS YET TO MOVE INTO THE CONUS AND IS WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO NOTED EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH AS A RESULT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY POSITIONING ITSELF OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION BY MOVING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z THIS EVENING...INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO FOLLOW THE LOW BY SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMEWHAT...LIKELY WORKING INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING MORE OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART THIS EVENING...BUT LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTH AND WEST COULD OBSERVE MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...BUT BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED PATH OF THE PERTURBATION...IT CERTAINLY APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BULK OF THIS THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. AS A RESULT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...A FEW SETS OF GUIDANCE DO SUGGEST THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS COULD MOVE EAST AND SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA 21-03Z. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-40% POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA 21-03Z. AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF A 35-45KT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK...JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF THIS JET STREAK WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA 03-12Z. SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...THEN THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND DEPART TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AND WITH AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THURSDAY EVENING HOWEVER...DIABATIC HEATING AND A RESULTANT DECREASE IN CIN VALUES...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STRENGTHENING TROUGH / DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA STARTING AT 21Z THURSDAY. WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST...AND WHETHER IT ACTUALLY REACHES OUR CWA...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST 1000-3000J/KG 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS...WILL BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA THROUGH AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. GIVEN THIS...WOULD FEEL MUCH BETTER HAVING AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST...AND WENT AHEAD WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE HWO FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST CONVECTIVE-AVAILABLE ENERGY WILL BE LOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...UNDER 1000J/KG...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN A MENTION OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. FINALLY...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-4000J/KG WILL BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND OUTLOOKED SEVERE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014 THE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO INDICATE RIDGING TO THE EAST AND TROUGHING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE ARE ACTUALLY STUCK IN THIS PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS PASSING OVER THE CWA. WE WILL FINALLY BREAK THIS PATTERN AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AROUND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE TRI- CITIES CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S UNTIL WE COOL DOWN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT OUR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 90S BEFORE THE COOL DOWN. HEAT INDICES COULD BE HAS HIGH AS 100 FRIDAY FOR A FEW OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES. IF SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE NOT ALREADY DEVELOPED BY THURSDAY NIGHT...I DO EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE LLJ INCREASES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE LLJ DECREASES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT. INSTABILITY OF 1000- 2000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KNOTS SHOULD HELP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS PEAK HEATING BECOMES REALIZED. THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY THE LLJ AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES DECOUPLED. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...THIS WILL ALSO BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LONG TERM. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE SEVERE WIND...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SEVERE HAIL AS WELL. OVERALL...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EVERYDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HPC IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING ANYWHERE FROM HALF AN INCH TO ABOUT 2 INCHES FOR OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OUR NORTH. I WOULD THINK THIS IS A GOOD BROAD BRUSH START FOR QPF GIVEN THE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAINFALL WE ARE EXPECTING TO GET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014 THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP AFTER SUNSET RESULTING IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY THIS EVENING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH. HAVE ADDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAFS AND MAY UPGRADE TO PREVAILING ONCE STORMS GET CLOSER TO THE AREA. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && UPDATE...WESELY SHORT TERM...BRYANT LONG TERM...GUERRERO AVIATION...WESELY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 727 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 220030- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 727 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AS BIG AS QUARTERS AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS DURING HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AROUND THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND BRIEF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXIST IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS COMING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FINALLY...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES AT VARIOUS POINTS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED...AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) WESELY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
856 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014
NEZ060-210230-
DAWSON NE-
856 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DAWSON COUNTY UNTIL
930 PM CDT...
AT 855 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GOTHENBURG...OR 23 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEXINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN DAWSON
COUNTY.
LAT...LON 4105 10022 4105 9987 4093 10001 4094 10008
4097 10022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 227DEG 15KT 4098 10010
WESELYThe Grand Island radar (KUEX), 64 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:32 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Wind gusts were estimated to be near 70 MPH. Multiple tree branches were downed, some as large as 6 inches in diameter. A small fruit tree was also uprooted.
Wind gusts were estimated to be near 70 MPH. Trees branches were downed, a pole barn was damaged and a trailer was tipped over.
Wind gusts were estimated to be near 70 MPH. An irrigation pivot was overturned.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, August 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 539472, 539474, 539473, 539475.