Flash Flooding and Flood in Missouri, June 3 to 4, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
119 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Ingredients are coming together for a strong complex of
thunderstorms to track across northern parts of Kansas and Missouri
this evening and overnight. The most likely areas to see severe
weather are near and north of US 36 where widespread damaging winds,
isolated tornadoes and flash flooding are possible.

Ahead of this thunderstorm complex, a few thunderstorms could develop
as early as mid afternoon across eastern KS and western MO as deep
isentropic ascent develops within an increasingly unstable and
potentially uncapped airmass. Synoptic-scale ascent during this time
will not be supportive of widespread storms, but both instability and
deep-layer shear will favor a few organized strong storms with large
hail and damaging winds if any storms do develop through late
afternoon.

The main show will be late this evening into the overnight hours as
supercells over Nebraska congeal into a strong thunderstorm complex
that will spread east-southeast into Iowa and northern Missouri after
dark. Placement of the upper- and lower-level jets should put the
strongest forcing for storms across southern and central Iowa, and
this is where most models are tracking the strongest activity.
However, strong instability and modest lapse rates in the 3-8 km
layer will be supportive of a deep cold pool behind what should be a
large and organized thunderstorm complex. Corfidi vectors and
orientation of thickness lines indicate storms could propagate
southeastward if a deep cold pool develops, and this could put areas
as far south as Kansas City and Sedalia at risk of strong storms if
such a southward propagation takes place. This southeasterly track is
even more probable if storms evolve faster than models are indicating
and can outrace a developing capping inversion that will spread into
KS and MO after dark.

Strong instability and very strong shear will favor intense storms
capable of producing widespread wind damage as this storm complex
tracks through. A potentially strong cold pool combined with very
strong 0-2.5 and 0-8 km shear values could lead to some long-lived
bow echoes with winds in excess of hurricane force particularly
across far northern MO. 0-1km helicity values greater than 300 m2/s2
could also lead to embedded mesovortices and a few tornadoes.

In addition to potentially widespread severe weather, deep moisture
(PWATs near 2") and strong moisture transport within an intense low-
level jet will support very heavy rainfall in spots. This will
especially be the case along the southern periphery of this complex
where the low-level jet could feed into an east-southeast propagating
cold pool and lead to a few training cells. The potential exists for
some areas to see 2 to 3 inches of rain from this system, locally
higher, with rainfall amounts well in excess of an inch per hour.
Will therefore hoist a flash flood watch for far northern Missouri
where confidence is higher that this storm complex will track.

Storms will be tracking into the Mississippi Valley early Wednesday
leaving a trailing boundary dropping south into eastern KS and
central MO through the day. Cant rule out a few storms popping up
along this boundary, especially across central MO, but increasing CIN
looks to keep the threat relatively low.

An active quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will persist through the
end of the week into the weekend and will bring a parade of
convective complexes into the region. One such complex will likely
skirt the region to the south Thursday and Thursday night, followed
by much better chances for storms Friday night and Saturday. Details
in such a pattern are murky, but the potential certainly exists for
strong storms and heavy rains as these system track through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Isolated pop-up afternoon convection is possible from east central
KS through central MO but the risk of any one cell affecting the
terminals is too low to include in the forecast. Instead will focus
on the greater threat of convection this evening. A large convective
complex forming over eastern NE will track southeast and move across
northern MO this evening. Storms could build to the southwest and
reach into west central MO mid to late evening. VFR cigs will hold
with brief occurrence of MVFR cigs should storms reach KMCI/KMKC.
KSTJ has a much greater chance of seeing storms.

Light south to southeast winds will become gusty this evening as the
low level jet moves into the region. Winds will gradually veer to the
southwest in the morning and then to the northwest with the passage
of a cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning FOR MOZ001>008-015>017.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1234 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-041745-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1234 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI AS WELL AS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS COULD
BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES.

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF