Flash Flood in Missouri, June 29, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
654 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

Updated public forecast to expand likely probabilities of showers
and thunderstorms further north into southern Illinois to account
for convective development that continues to expand eastward from
south central into southeast Missouri.

Also revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a possibility today
as the Quad State region remains in a warm, moist, and unstable
environment. Specifically, showers and thunderstorms have developed
overnight over portions of southeast Missouri, northeast Arkansas,
and western Tennessee in response to the approach of a mid level
shortwave trough and the development of weak mid level convergence
in advance of this feature. Utilizing the HRRR and various runs of
the NAM-WRF, anticipate the activity to our southwest will continue
to spread northeast through early morning. Southeast Missouri, far
southern Illinois, and much of western Kentucky will see the
greatest coverage, with lesser coverage further north. As the wave
begins to shift east of the area, the overall chance of showers
and thunderstorms will decrease from west to east this afternoon
and evening. Temperatures will be highly dependent on how much
sunshine we see today, but current thinking is most areas will be
able to make mid 80s by afternoon.

Model forecast soundings indicate a drying of the mid atmosphere
as the northern periphery of an upper level ridge over the
southern U.S. briefly becomes more influential on Monday. As a
result, most areas should remain precipitation free, though an
isolated thunderstorm is certainly possible. With more sunshine,
temperatures will climb back into the lower 90s Monday and
Tuesday. Heat index readings will likely peak near 100 degrees
both Monday and Tuesday across much of the area.

Late Monday night and especially Tuesday, the chance of showers
and thunderstorms will be on the increase as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Isolated strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out during this time, but the potential for
organized severe weather appears rather low at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

Upper trof still forecast to move slowly east across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region late Tuesday through Thursday. Until
the final h5 trof axis swings through Thursday, will have to linger
PoPs for convection through Wednesday night given the active SW flow
ahead of the h5 trof, causing a slow SE frontal movement. Once the
mid level trof axis moves through Thursday, the flow aloft will turn
NW with high pressure building into the region into the first part
of the weekend. This change will allow for slightly lower
temperatures and humidity, including for the 4th of July holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 654 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

The passage of a mid level shortwave disturbance will bring
scattered to numerous thunderstorms to the region today. Better
chances at KCGI and KPAH will be this morning through midday. The
activity should expand eastward to impact KEVV and KOWB by late
morning and afternoon. Will amend TAFs as necessary when specific
timing becomes more clear. MVFR ceilings have developed at KCGI and
are attempting to do so at KPAH. High MVFR or low VFR ceilings
should develop at all forecast terminals by 15Z, and a further
reduction may occur in association with thunderstorm activity. South
winds around 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots will subside somewhat
tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
415 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-301000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
415 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 100 MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS BOTH DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.