Hail in Minnesota, May 19, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
517 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY FILL WITH TIME. WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARLY CO-LOCATED
WITH THE 850-300MB THICKNESS RIDGE...WHICH REACHES THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. WE THINK THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE NOSE OF THE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL COME ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI. OUR QPF IS PROBABLY
OVERDONE ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF YOU
BUY INTO SOME OF THE NEW 09Z MESO-MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF /HOPWRF.INFO/. THEY HAVE VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. EVENTUALLY THE THICKNESS RIDGE SAGS SOUTHEAST AND WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SO...AFTER THIS
FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP MOVES THROUGH THERE SHOULD BE A LAG IN THE
PRECIP OVER MUCH OF MN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THIS SECOND ROUND IS MUCH MORE
CONDITIONAL AND WE'RE NOT TOTALLY SURE WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SET UP. IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED HINGES HEAVILY ON A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL EJECT OUT FROM THAT
LOW...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TO ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IF THINGS
PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE UPCOMING PERIOD WILL BE DRY FOR
THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE RAIN REMAINS FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
WILL ROTATE EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT MIXING SHOULD BRING TEMPS NEAR 80F ON
TUESDAY. A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THOUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL SPIN OFF OF THIS VORTICITY
MAX...AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS VERY LOW...BUT
EVENTUALLY THIS WAVE WILL KICK OUT AND MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THE 20POPS IN THE EXTENDED ARE A REFLECTION OF THIS
POTENTIAL...AND UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS LATE THIS EVENING ARE NOT AS UNIFIED ON
PROGRESSING A BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS EARLIER RUNS INDICATED. HENCE...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH AS BEFORE. TRIED TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY IN THE
TAFS WITH SHRA/TSRA INTO WESTERN MN IN THE 10Z-14Z TIME FRAME AND
ACROSS EASTERN MN FROM 14Z-18Z. STILL THINK THE ACTIVITY WEAKENS
SOME WHILE MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER TREND THAT IS DEVELOPING IS THE SLIPPAGE OF CEILINGS BELOW
010. EVEN THE PESSIMISTIC NAM IS NOW SEVERAL HOURS LATER IN THE
DAY BEFORE BRINGING CEILINGS DOWN. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
CEILINGS TRENDS AS WELL. BREEZY SE WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR
KAXN AND KRWF ALONG WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.

KMSP...A FEW SPRINKLES DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS INDICATED FOR THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH IFR DELAYED UNTIL EVENING. SE WINDS 16G24KTS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...MVFR CIGS SHRA/TSRA ENDING IN THE MORNING. BECOMING VFR.
WINDS W 10G20KT.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLF/JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
200845-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
345 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS LOW. A COUPLE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD HAVE SMALL
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.