Hail and Heavy Rain in Minnesota, August 9, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
339 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

SMATTERING OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHWAY
14 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO 850 WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  WITH
TIME...WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
SHOW AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  STILL MORE UNCERTAIN IN
TERMS OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-90...WITH WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT BUT WEAKER FORCING.

COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES AND HAVE RAISED POPS.  WITH SLOW STORM MOTION...INCREASED
QPF IN AREAS WHERE PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES BOTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH SQUASHED DIURNAL RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I29 ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL FINALLY ALLOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT LATE AT NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN OF SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIES THE RIDGING...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

BY MID WEEK...MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN
WARMING ALOFT. THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE GEM AND ECMWF HOLDS ONTO
THE RIDGING...RESULTING IN A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION. WENT AHEAD AND
LEFT THE LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK REGARDING
THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ONE UNIFYING FEATURE
IS THAT THE PATTERN BECOMES VERY ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHORTWAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF ANYTHING...BUT IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO KEEP SOME MENTION OF
POPS GOING IN EACH PERIOD. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SHOULD ALSO SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM A BIT AS WELL...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

MVFR STRATUS AND SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH
ESEPCIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER. HAVE TEMPOS FOR SHOWERS IN
BOTH KHON AND KFSD...BUT REMOVED THEM IN KSUX AS TIMING IS ILL
DEFINED THAT FAR SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE FILLING IN ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SUGGEST
CEILINGS LOWERING OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LOWERED
CEILINGS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE CHANCE OF RAIN AS TIMING WAS TOUGH
TO NARROW DOWN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
430 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-100930-
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-OBRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-LINCOLN MN-LYON MN-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-
NOBLES-JACKSON-PIPESTONE-ROCK-DIXON-DAKOTA-BEADLE-KINGSBURY-
BROOKINGS-GREGORY-JERAULD-SANBORN-MINER-LAKE-MOODY-BRULE-AURORA-
DAVISON-HANSON-MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-HUTCHINSON-
TURNER-LINCOLN SD-BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY SD-UNION-
430 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING NUMEROUS TONIGHT. NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.