Tornadoes in Kentucky, April 28, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
154 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

Svr convective threat/heavy rain/flooding threat maxes this
pm/evening east of the MS river, particularly for the eastern
Pennyrile of Wky. We've extended the FFA there and northward into
sw IN for the duration of the evening. Will keep close eye to
radar/near term environment for svr development, although we are
in slgt risk with highest threat looking to stay to our south.

After tonight, svr threat shifts east. We remain within a
convective threat through Tuesday, particularly our eastern most
reaches of the FA. After that, we become increasing under the
influence of the upper Low, and the pops transition to more
scattered convective showers. This lasts effectively thru the
remainder of the short term, waning somewhat with time.

After warm nose of temps tmrw despite clouds/pcpn, we trend toward
cooler numbers under the influence of the upper Low by Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

By the start of the Long term (Thursday), the PAH FA finds itself
still under the influence of troffing energy passing
aloft/overhead, from the parent upper low over the Great Lakes.
This keeps a cool/unstable showery chance in the forecast for the
first 12-24 hrs.

After that, a more zonal w-nwly flow pattern establishes itself,
even as pieces of energy from the broad troffing may nick
particularly our northern and eastern counties Fri-Sat-even Sun.
However, it appears the 12Z modeling is giving more influence to
the ridging to our west than so to the troffing to our east, at
least in comparison to previous runs. Thus we have continued the
previous shifts trend toward slightly warmer/drier conditions
(i.e. laid off pop inclusion) for this time period, but confidence
is marginal, and it will still be a relatively cool period per
norms. The ridging/height recover is a little more pronounced
later in the period (days 7-8), so we made a slight adjustment
upwards on temps for that time period compared to the blend. This
appeared to play well with the collab pic, or well enough.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

Round of convection impacting KPAH at the moment and will
head northeast toward KEVV/KOWB over the next few hours. Handled
that with a TEMPO group. Behind this area of storms, there could
be a lull before storms try to develop along a cold front
advancing from the west. Used a tempo group to indicate best
guess with timing, and this will need to be adjusted as convection
develops. Otherwise VFR conditions will continue but winds will be
gusty outside of storms. Storms could become severe though later
today with hail/damaging winds. Activity will clear out from west
to east later today/ this evening. Winds could pick up again out
of the southwest toward the end of TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>006.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ007>022.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
210 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-291000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
210 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH 7 PM...AND FOR THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH 1 AM. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. FLOOD WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ALSO ARE IN EFFECT. THE HEAVIEST RAINS THUS FAR
HAVE BEEN ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THESE WOULD BE THE MOST FLOOD PRONE
LOCALES...SHOULD ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FALL TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS...REFER TO THE WATCH...WARNING...AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS.

IN ADDITION...WE REMAIN UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DO NOTE THAT A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
OF NASHVILLE INTO ALABAMA. STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH OF
THAT AREA WILL CONTAIN THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
US...SO WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE THE PLACE TO WATCH FOR THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WITHIN OUR SLIGHT RISK ZONE...WHICH
EXTENDS BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. AGAIN THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
TUESDAY.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE...REFER TO WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER WATCH IN CASE THEIR
ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
432 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

ILZ088-089-093-282200-
JOHNSON IL-PULASKI IL-UNION IL-
432 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN UNION...NORTHERN
PULASKI AND JOHNSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 428 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KARNAK...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VIENNA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GOREVILLE...CYPRESS...BUNCOMBE AND NEW BURNSIDE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
454 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

ILZ087-091-KYZ014-282230-
GALLATIN IL-HARDIN IL-UNION KY-
454 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARDIN AND SOUTHEASTERN GALLATIN
COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 449 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROSICLARE...OR 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MARION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GROSS AND OLD SHAWNEETOWN.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.