Hail in Kansas, April 27, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS ARRIVED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE DRY-LINE...WITH THE HRRR AND GFS SUPPORTING CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135
CORRIDOR. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE MAIN FOCUS FOR A MORE ROBUST AND
HIGHER END SEVERE EPISODE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY-LINE SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY EVENING. ML CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR
EXPECT TO RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE DRY-LINE WHERE THE CAP WILL BE
ERODED MORE QUICKLY FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DUE TO MID-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE BASED STORMS AS EARLY AS
MIDDAY...WHICH WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN DECENT LOW LEVEL
CAPE FOR MORE BUOYANT INITIAL UPDRAFTS WHERE SHEAR MAY COMBINE TO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADIC STORMS BESIDES LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE LATEST TIMING OF THE DRY-LINE SHOULD PUSH
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z-23Z.

THERE IS CONCERN BEHIND THE DRY-LINE THIS AFTERNOON FOR STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A DRIER AND DEEPLY MIXED LOWER TO
MID-TROPOSPHERE. BESIDES A WIND ADVISORY AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN...AREAS OF HAZE FROM BLOWING DUST AND PERHAPS SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY RESULT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE ALREADY
REPORTING SOME OF THIS AS OF VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE DEEP OCCLUDING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS BECOMING
DIURNALLY STRONGER DURING THE DAY AND LIKELY SUPPORTING
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BROADEN AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO TUESDAY WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE CLOSED LOW WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

MAIN CONCERNS: STRONG WINDS...MORNING MVFR CIGS...THUNDERSTORMS.

STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY TRY TO
DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL INITIALLY INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AT
HUT...ICT...CNU WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A TS MENTION
AT HUT...ICT...AND CNU FROM 09Z ONWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST
TO AROUND 40 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AREA-WIDE. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY EVENING.

JMC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER DAY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AS VERY STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DRY-LINE.
MUCH DRIER AIR AND THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
HIGH GFDI VALUES AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY INTO
MONDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED AGAIN FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  49  70  46 /  30  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      78  47  69  44 /  20  10  20  20
NEWTON          77  47  68  45 /  30  10  20  20
ELDORADO        79  48  70  46 /  40  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  49  72  47 /  40  10  20  20
RUSSELL         75  44  65  42 /  20  20  20  30
GREAT BEND      75  45  66  42 /  10  10  20  30
SALINA          78  47  67  44 /  30  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       78  47  68  44 /  20  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     80  51  73  47 /  60  10  20  20
CHANUTE         79  50  71  46 /  60  20  20  20
IOLA            78  50  70  46 /  60  20  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    80  50  72  47 /  60  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
343 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-280845-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
343 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST
OF I-135. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD
MOVING DRY-LINE THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WHILE
THE MAIN RISKS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE DRY-LINE PASSAGE...ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER AND MAY ALSO CAUSE AREAS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER WINDS LEADING TO
A PERIOD OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COMING WEEK...ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1251 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

KSZ092-093-270645-
COWLEY-SUMNER-
1251 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  EASTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 145 AM CDT

* AT 1250 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRAMAN...OR 22 MILES SOUTH OF
  WELLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WINFIELD...SOUTH HAVEN...GEUDA SPRINGS...ARKANSAS CITY...OXFORD...
  BELLE PLAINE...UDALL...DEXTER...BURDEN...STROTHER FIELD AIRPORT...
  MAPLE CITY...ROCK AND CAMBRIDGE.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORM INTENSIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9752 3747 9727 3748 9721 3739 9665
      3700 9673 3699 9752
TIME...MOT...LOC 0551Z 215DEG 37KT 3697 9734

CARUSO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
145 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

KSZ069-083-270730-
BUTLER-SEDGWICK-
145 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  EASTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 230 AM CDT

* AT 144 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF HAYSVILLE...OR 10
  MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN WICHITA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DOWNTOWN WICHITA...HAYSVILLE...DERBY...SOUTH WICHITA...WICHITA MID
  CONTINENT AIRPORT...WEST WICHITA...MCCONNELL AIR FORCE BASE...ROSE
  HILL...EAST WICHITA...MAIZE...ANDOVER...NORTHEAST WICHITA...PARK
  CITY...VALLEY CENTER...OAKLAWN...BEL AIRE...JABARA AIRPORT...KECHI
  AND BENTON.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORM INTENSIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3754 9754 3792 9745 3791 9702 3750 9713
TIME...MOT...LOC 0645Z 207DEG 39KT 3758 9744

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
212 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

KSZ069-083-270800-
BUTLER-SEDGWICK-
212 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 300 AM CDT

* AT 210 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF NORTHEAST
  WICHITA...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN WICHITA...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WHITEWATER...POTWIN AND ELBING.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORM INTENSIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3780 9730 3791 9722 3791 9715 3802 9716
      3809 9711 3808 9682 3773 9709
TIME...MOT...LOC 0713Z 208DEG 43KT 3787 9716

CARUSO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

KSZ093-270845-
COWLEY-
301 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 345 AM CDT

* AT 256 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ARKANSAS CITY...OR 16 MILES
  SOUTH OF WINFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WINFIELD...DEXTER...BURDEN...MAPLE CITY...STROTHER FIELD AIRPORT
  AND CAMBRIDGE.

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORM INTENSIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3745 9700 3738 9653 3700 9673 3701 9711
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 203DEG 33KT 3708 9696

CARUSO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
427 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

KSZ067-271000-
RENO-
427 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL RENO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 500 AM CDT

* AT 423 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF ARLINGTON...OR 12
  MILES NORTHWEST OF KINGMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HUTCHINSON...ARLINGTON...ABBYVILLE...PARTRIDGE...SOUTH
  HUTCHINSON...NICKERSON...WILLOWBROOK AND HUTCHINSON AIRPORT.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORM INTENSIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3816 9821 3816 9815 3817 9813 3817 9776
      3773 9813 3773 9821 3778 9836
TIME...MOT...LOC 0927Z 203DEG 40KT 3784 9820

ES