Hail in Illinois, May 27, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CDT Tue May 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

The short term portion of the forecast continues to be fairly
straight-forward. As a weakening upper low drifts from the southern
Plains toward the lower MS river valley, increased heat/moisture
will result in daily precipitation chances, especially during the
most unstable heat of the day (pm/evening). Mid to high chance
pops will be during the day, with low to slight chance pops at
night.

Temperatures will continue in the mid-upper 80s for highs, and
mid-upper 60s for lows.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

Medium confidence in the extended.

The models are in better agreement with positioning of the high
aloft and with the stalled surface front. However they have waffled
with the weak surface boundary. Where the general consensus was to
push the front through then lift it back...they now agree on the
front bisecting the fa on Friday providing a focus for thunderstorms
during the day. In contrast...the high aloft and loss of heating
after sunset...believe this will be mainly dry overnight Friday
night and possibly Saturday night. If the frontal position stays the
same as forecast we might remain dry Saturday in the northeast. As
we progress into Sunday the high drifts southeast and begins to
flatten into to next week. This returns warm moist gulf moisture to
the region as temperatures climb to around 90 for highs next week.
This will result in an increase in thunderstorm chances and
coverage. So daily chances will continue through the extended. With
this flow it would be easier to pick out the few times when rain is
not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

MVFR vsbys possible at all sites in TSRA through 23-00Z, then with BR
between 09-13Z, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will
remain out the south to south southwest aob 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
331 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
331 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WHILE A STRAY STORM MAY
BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
ALMOST EVERY DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE A
STRAY STORM MAY BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS IN THE HEAT
OF THE DAY...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.