A line of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms moved east within a zone of strong southerly low level winds. The activity was supported by a 500 mb shortwave trough moving east across the Plains.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A line of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms moved east within a zone of strong southerly low level winds. The activity was supported by a 500 mb shortwave trough moving east across the Plains. The low levels of the atmosphere were very dry, with surface relative humidity near 30 percent. Little if any rain reached the ground. The Carbondale airport only reported a trace of rain. Conditions were favorable for dry microbursts. An isolated microburst occurred northeast of Pinckneyville in Perry County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 2:23 PM CST, 3 hours 17 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 323 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014 The main story through the short term will be a frontal boundary that will meander across the forecast area. Although this front will bring chances of precipitation through the short term...the primary issues with heavy rainfall and thunderstorms will be during the long term /see long term discussion below/. During the night tonight...a moderately strong 500 mb shortwave trough will pass by to our north. This trough will nudge a weak cold frontal boundary southeast to about the Ohio River by 12z. Regional radars and lightning detection systems indicate a narrow band of broken showers and storms has been slowly moving east across Missouri today. This band has been holding together fairly well. The location of the precip correlates well with the 850 mb instability axis and 850 mb low level jet. As this system slides east...expect scattered showers to arrive across our region this evening. Precip will diminish after 06z as the 500 mb shortwave moves northeast. On Tuesday...the surface front will become stationary in the vicinity of the Lower Ohio Valley and se Missouri. Despite the proximity of the front...the atmospheric column is forecast to dry out in the subsident region behind the departing shortwave trough. Some moisture will return late in the day...but the forecast will remain dry through the daytime hours. Temps will be very similar to today in the south...but sw Indiana and parts of srn Illinois will be cooler since they will be north of the front. On Tuesday night...the front will inch back north as a warm front. Deep southwest flow over the front will bring a gradual increase in moisture. Elevated showers and storms may develop during the night...primarily along and north of the front. The models remain in good agreement that most of the activity will be along and north of Interstate 64. Little if any precip will occur along the Tennessee border. On Wednesday...the front will slowly drift north of the forecast area. The models appear a little too high with pops and qpf...since the forecast area will be warm sectored. Upper level support will be lacking until the long term period. Therefore...forecast pops will be in the chance category for Wednesday. Through the short term period...forecast temps will be fairly close to gfs/nam mos guidance in the south. Temps in the north /southwest Indiana and parts of southern IL/ will be a little more of a challenge...since the front will be located over that area. .LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Monday/... Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014 The extended portion of the forecast period begins with a broad low amplitude ridge aloft, with a low level warm frontal zone arc across the northern 1/3 of the WFO PAH forecast area (I-64 corridor in Southern IL/Southwest IN). Although this warm frontal zone and warm conveyor belt becomes somewhat semi-permanent across the area until the cold front sweeps in from the west on Friday. Periodic shortwaves will move across this warm frontal boundary, initiating organized convection, cell training, and intermittent severe weather potential. The exact timing and eventual location of the warm frontal zone may wobble by as much as 25-50 nautical miles during the next 4-8 numerical model runs. This will play a little havoc with the enhanced zone of rainfall across the area, complicated by the intrusion of storm segments with heavy rain outpacing the general area of heavy rain. For now, the focus with this extended package has been biased toward the latest GFS run vs. the model consensus and previous forecast package. For collaboration/coordination purposes, adjusted QPF (rainfall) downward toward more conservative values. However, there is a good likelihood that a few areas, especially in the vicinity of the warm front may see flood/flash-flood producing rainfall. Will make a decision around press time whether or not to issue a special weather statement or hydrological outlook to address heavy rain/flooding potential. Regardless, both the mention of heavy rain and severe thunderstorm potential (more closely tied to the warm/cold frontal locations Wednesday through Friday) will be placed in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Temperatures were biased warmer for the GFS, while dewpoints lean closer to the ECMWF through Day 6 or Day 7. All other elements lean closer to the NAM/GFS guidance. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014 High cloudiness will increase this afternoon...but the main aviation concern through 00z will be gusty south winds. Winds will gust to around 20 knots at all sites. A period of mid level cloudiness this evening will lower cigs to around 10k feet at times. Could not rule out an isolated shower at the taf sites...but no significant effects on cigs/vsbys are expected. Clouds will decrease after 08z...and winds will shift into the west to northwest as a cold front passes. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && SHORT TERM...MY LONG TERM....Smith AVIATION...MY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 407 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-011000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 407 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIODIC ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST MODELS AS TO SPECIFIC LOCATIONS FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN AND POCKETS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES FOR SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. AS OF THE ISSUANCE OF THIS OUTLOOK...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 57 IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTERSTATE 55 IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA EXPANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PURCHASE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY TO THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES ON THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMITH
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 124 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:38 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A utility pole was snapped, and another pole was leaning.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, March 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 501423.