A weak short wave arrived from the central Plains during the afternoon and evening of June 1, 2014. There was just enough forcing acting on a weakly capped/sheared environment to trigger scattered thunderstorms.
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The episode as NWS DVN wrote it up.
A weak short wave arrived from the central Plains during the afternoon and evening of June 1, 2014. There was just enough forcing acting on a weakly capped/sheared environment to trigger scattered thunderstorms. A couple of the storms became severe in northwest Illinois, with tree limbs blown down.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 1, 5:37 PM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 637 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ARCHING FROM CENTRAL NEB...UP ACRS NORTHWESTERN MN AND NORTHEASTWARD ACRS LK SUPERIOR. SFC WAVE NOTED ON IT IN SOUTHEASTERN SD. BUT MORE OF AN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE ZONE WAS LOCATED ALONG A SFC TROF OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHWESTERN IA THEN ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER REGION AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. NOT MUCH LOCALLY FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON AND JUST ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD BUOYANCY DRIVEN/PULSE STORMS ACRS THE LOCAL AREA BACK ACRS CENTRAL IA SOUTH OF THE MN/IA BORDER BOUNDARY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE/VORT TAKING MORE AIM ALONG AND EAST OF THE DVN CWA WITH MORE SCTRD ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE ACRS IL. ALOFT...12Z H85 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD LLVL FLOW STREAMING LOW TO MID H85 DPTS OFF THE GULF AND UP THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE WESTERN MS RVR VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP INDICATING A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE/VORT COMPLEX ACRS CO AND UP INTO NORTHEASTERN WY. PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS WHAT WILL LOOK TO PROPAGATE TO EASTERN IA BY 12Z MON. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS TO WANE AFTER 8 PM CDT...BUT A FEW CELLS FEEDING ON LINGERING SBCAPES OVER 1500 J/KG COULD LINGER THROUGH 10 PM. JUST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A WET MICROBURST WITH A MORE VERTICALLY ORGANIZED STORM THIS EVENING. TIGHTENING SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A 10-18 MPH BREEZE OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH MID 60+ SFC DPTS WILL SIDE WITH MILD OVERNIGHT TEMP GUIDANCE AND GO WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST AREAS. THEN AS THE UPSTREAM CO/WY WAVE COMPLEX PROPAGATES TOWARD THE AREA...EXPECT THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACRS CENTRAL NEB TO PUSH INTO THE DVN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MON MORNING. LEAD BAND OF CONVECTION ACRS FAR SOUTHEASTERN SD INTO NORTHEASTERN NEB MAY EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN DVN CWA AFTER 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER. WILL ADJUST THE 1ST PERIOD POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THESE SCENARIOS...WHICH ALREADY HAD THE TRENDS IN LINE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES/FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AS THIS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR/KINEMATICS TO PRODUCE NEAR SVR TO SVR WINDS OF 55-60 MPH EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT IF 1500+ J/KG MUCAPES CAN LINGER INTO MON MORNING. BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LLVL/H95-H9 MB INVERSION DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT MAY HELP LIMIT FULL WIND INTRUSION TO THE SFC. THESE FCST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS MOISTURE PLUME PROJECTIONS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS CELLS. A FEW LOCATIONS BY MID MON MORNING THAT GET HIT BY REPEATED STORMS COULD EASILY HAVE FROM 1 TO 2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL. MONDAY...THE MORNING PERIOD COULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN ONGOING MCS AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO ROLL ACRS THE CWA. OR AT LEAST A ROBUST STORM CLUSTER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. IF THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD ENOUGH...IT MAY FLARE UP AND BECOME STRONG TO SVR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA ACRS NORTHEASTERN IL INTO MI/IND. THEN THE BIG QUESTION IS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON RECOVERY TO FUEL SCTRD STRONG STORMS INTO EARLY MON EVENING. WILL JUST GO WITH CHC POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP...AND GO WITH MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. ..12.. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE GENERAL PATTERN BUT DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN STRENGTH OF FEATURES AND TIMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXITING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. GOOD INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION BUT SHEAR IS WEAK SO AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW AFTER THE WAVE PASSES AND A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MONDAYS SYSTEM WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI AND IOWA BORDER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH AND NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT TO UNFOLD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM NEBRASKA INTO ILLINOIS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WHERE WITH THIS WAVE AWHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE STRONGER. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMIZE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING HIGH THETA-E AIR INTO THE REGION JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE BEST DYNAMICS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AFTER 06 UTC ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHEN THE BETTER POPS WERE PLACED ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS AND GEM LINGER THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER WITH THE QUICK ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE THERE MAY BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES BY. AFTER FRIDAY...MODELS DEPICT A VERY STRONG DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF ALASKA FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. THESE STORM SHOULD BE MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD MOVE THE THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN TO AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT. NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...12 SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...COUSINS AVIATION...DLF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 354 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-020900- BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- 354 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND COULD GENERATE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL RAISE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. BOTH INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH WHICH FAVORS WELL ORGANIZED STORMS. THE TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS POINT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE IOWA-MISSOURI BORDER WHICH WOULD MEAN LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. HAASE/WOLF
The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 44 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:46 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported numerous small limbs down. Two limbs of 8 to 10 inches in diameter and 15 to 20 feet in length were also blown down.
A trained spotter reported tree limbs of 6 to 8 inches in diameter blown down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, June 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 524898, 524899.