Damaging Wind in Illinois, July 14, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1238 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2014

Updated grids and zones for severe thunderstorm watch through 6 pm.

Byrd
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2014

Focus this period will be precip chances as well as the svr threat
associated with these storms.

Mdls are in relatively good agreement with a cdfnt pushing thru the
CWA today. The NAM is slightly slower than other guidance, but only
by a couple of hours. This fnt will reinforce a weaker baroclinic
zone that is shifting S of the CWA early this morning.

This zone is expected to continue to produce TSRA S of the CWA
during the day. The cdfnt is currently progd to reach the MO/IA
border around 12z this morning. By 18z, the fnt is progd to be
near a PPQ to MBY line before pushing S of the CWA by 03z. While
isod SHRA may accompany this fnt this morning, believe the greater
coverage will hold off until around Noon today. Mdls prog K index
values around 40 C along and ahead of the fnt. This, coupled with
the timing of the fnt, shud limit the svr threat in the CWA.
However, mdls prog around 1500 J/kg SBCAPE along and ahead of the
fnt, which may support isod near svr storms.

Focus tonight will be temps as the fnt continues to push S of the
area with high pressure building into the region. Clouds shud clear
out quickly with winds diminishing. With such cool dewpoints, have
trended twd the cooler guidance.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2014

(Tuesday through Wednesday)

Focus thru this period will be temps. Mdls are in rather good
agreement thru the period. A large sfc ridge is progd to build
into the region tonight behind the cdfnt mentioned above. Mdls
agree with 805 mb temps in the 8 C to 10 C degree range thru Wed
which shud keep highs in the low to mid 70s. The cool dewpoints
with this sfc ridge will allow lows to drop well into the 50s and
perhaps into the 40s in some spots.

(Thursday through Sunday)

Mdl solns quickly diverge at the beginning of this period. Mdl
mass fields do not differ much until the GFS develops an upper low
late Thurs into Fri. Believe this is a result of the convection
developed on Wed and Thurs across the Plains. Also believe at
least the nrn portions of this convection is due to convective
feedback. With the GFS soln as an outlier and the ECMWF/GEM in
rather good agreement, have trended away from the GFS soln.
Overall, not much change from the prev forecast with temps well
below avg until Sun.

Tilly
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2014

Strong secondary cold frontal boundary moving south through
forecast area this afternoon. Could see some lingering showers at
KUIN...so kept vcnty showers there through 20z. As for rest of taf
sites, storms to move into KCOU by 18z and metro area by 19z. Best
timing is for activity to exit between 20z and 22z. Have added
tempo groups to these tafs with mvfr cigs/vsbys with the storms.
Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail. Winds to persist from the
northwest through the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Strong secondary cold frontal boundary moving south through
forecast area this afternoon. Storms to move into metro area by
19z...so have added tempo group to taf with mvfr cigs/vsbys with
the storms exiting by 22z. Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail.
Winds to persist from the northwest through the forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-151200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
349 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN QUINCY AND SAVERTON. PLEASE SEE THE
APPROPRIATE FLOOD WARNING OR STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN QUINCY AND SAVERTON EARLY THIS WEEK.
PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD WARNING OR STATEMENT FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
148 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND GST     WARRENTON               38.82N  91.14W
07/14/2014  E45 MPH          WARREN             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER BRIEFLY WENT OUT.

&&

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
159 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 PM     TSTM WND GST     ST. CHARLES             38.79N  90.52W
07/14/2014  E40 MPH          ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT ELM AND MOCKINGBIRD

&&

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
202 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND GST     ST. PETERS              38.78N  90.61W
07/14/2014  E60 MPH          ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 50-60 MPH WINDS

&&

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
210 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HAZELWOOD               38.78N  90.36W
07/14/2014                   ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL TREE LIMBS SNAPPED BY HIGH WINDS

&&

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
219 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     TSTM WND GST     WENTZVILLE              38.81N  90.86W
07/14/2014  M41 MPH          ST. CHARLES        MO   PUBLIC

            AT GOLF CLUB AT WENTZVILLE...TIME ESTIMATED

&&

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
225 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     TSTM WND GST     ST. LOUIS               38.64N  90.24W
07/14/2014  E50 MPH          ST. LOUIS CITY     MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED 40-50 MPH GUSTS DOWNTOWN

&&

TRUETT