Wildfire in Hawaii, September 9 to 12, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON SEP 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP GENTLE TRADE WINDS BLOWING THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP RAINFALL
LIGHT. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL PULL HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY
RAIN. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS AND KILL
THE TRADES. LAND AND SEA BREEZES WILL PREVAIL...WITH SPARSE
RAINFALL...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AT THIS TIME...AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 400 PM
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER OVER THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEAK EAST-WEST SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO OUR NORTH...MAINTAINING
GENTLE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE
TRADES WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME SEA BREEZES TO BE
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN USUAL. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME
WINDWARD SHOWERS...MAINLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE SEA BREEZES WILL
BRING SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS IN THE AFTERNOONS. A
TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS PULLED
SOME HIGH CLOUDS UP OVER THE ISLANDS BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
OTHERWISE.

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS NOW SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
MOVING CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS AND THE TRADE WINDS DYING. DAYTIME SEA
BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES WILL PREVAIL. THE SEA BREEZES
WILL PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO
DRY AND STABLE FOR MUCH RAINFALL. THE LAND BREEZES WILL BRING
COOL...DRY NIGHTS. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN
VOG BUILDING UP OVER THE BIG ISLAND. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
SOUTHERLY FLOW SO THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT OF
VOG ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED ON WINDWARD SLOPES. CLOUD BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE SEABREEZES ACROSS SOME LEEWARD
AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF/ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A NEW NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD. WITH BUOYS
51001...NORMALLY NEAR NIHOA...AND THE HANALEI BUOY BOTH OUT OF
SERVICE...WE HAD TO WAIT FOR THE SWELL TO REACH THE WAIMEA BAY OFF
OAHU. THE LONG PERIOD ENERGY STARTED APPEARING ON THE WAIMEA BAY
BUOY AROUND NOON...AND THE SWELL HAS BEEN BUILDING SINCE. WAVEWATCH
III /WWIII/ SHOWS THE SWELL PEAKING AROUND 6 FEET AND 14 SECONDS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH FRIDAY.
THAT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. THE RESULTING SURF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.

THE LANAI BUOY IS ALSO OUT OF SERVICE...BUT THE BARBERS POINT BUOY
IS PICKING UP A COUPLE OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE WWIII. BOTH OF THESE SWELLS WILL BE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT WITH
ONLY SMALL SURF EXPECTED ON SOUTH FACING SHORES TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE WWIII CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD-SIZED SOUTH SWELL
ARRIVING STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
PREV DISCUSSION...DONALDSON
AVIATION...JACOBSON