High Surf in Hawaii, March 7 to 9, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. TRADE
WINDS WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
LARGE AND HAZARDOUS SURF IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH FACING BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG
WINDWARD TERRAIN... ESPECIALLY FOR THE BIG ISLAND WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL AND WEAKEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN NEAR TERM
TWEAKS TO KEEP UP WITH SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCING PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN FOR OAHU THIS AFTERNOON AND MAUI COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL KEEP MOVING SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND
TOMORROW MORNING.

THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SUMMITS REMAINS POSTED ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
DROPPED OFF TO AROUND 30-35MPH. A BRIEF INCREASE IS STILL
ANTICIPATED AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE STATE SO WILL
LET IT RIDE FOR NOW WITH NO CHANGES TO THE EXPIRATION TIME.

TRADES AND SHALLOW POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS HIGHEST
ALONG WINDWARD TERRAIN. CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY WINDWARD HALEAKALA THIS WEEKEND
AS TERRAIN AND THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SERVE AS FORCING MECHANISMS IN
A HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.

TRADES WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PERIODICALLY
DISRUPTED AS SYSTEMS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ENHANCED RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVE DIVES ACROSS THE
AREA AND DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE STATE. THE CLOSED
LOW ITSELF SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON PRECIP OVER HAWAII COUNTY.
GUIDANCE KEEPS RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED BENEATH THE COLD
POOL FAR EAST OF HERE. STRONG NORTH WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE SYSTEM MAY ACCELERATE WINDS ACROSS THE SUMMITS ONCE AGAIN.

TRADES WILL BE EASING AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT SET TO
ARRIVE SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
AS OF NOW GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A MUCH SHARPER DYNAMIC TROUGH ALOFT
WHICH MAY SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 1 IS FINALLY CATCHING UP WITH A GOOD SPIKE IN SWELL HEIGHTS AND
PERIODS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT PUTTING NORTH FACING BEACHES IN
SOLID 25 TO 35 FT SURF SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE THEREAFTER.
THE WARNING IS POSTED AND GOES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE
FOLLOWED UP BY AN ADVISORY TO CATCH THE DROPPING SIDE OF THE SWELL.
THE SURF FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TOO...SO CHECK IT OUT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR ALL WATER EXCEPT SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED BAYS. THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH NOON
SUNDAY. THE NEXT SHOT AT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COMES MID WEEK FOR
THE CHANNELS AS TRADES RAMP UP.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE EARLIER BAND OF SHOWERS HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED E OF MAUI...
LEAVING BEHIND A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. A NEW
PREFRONTAL BAND CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS OAHU WILL REACH MAUI
COUNTY THIS EVENING. A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MVFR SHOWERS AS
WELL AS OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITIES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BAND.
SPECIFIC TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE TAFS AND AREA
FORECAST...BUT THIS BAND WILL EVENTUALLY STALL NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND TONIGHT.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
KAUAI AND OAHU...AND WILL BE EXPANDED TO MAUI COUNTY BY EVENING FOR
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL BAND. THE AIRMET ACROSS
KAUAI IS QUESTIONABLE...AS CEILINGS HAVE BEEN QUITE HIGH /AROUND
080 AT BOTH BKH AND LIH/ DESPITE THE PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN. THE GFS
STILL SHOWS A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT...BUT WE
CANNOT IDENTIFY ANY PARTICULAR FEATURES ON SATELLITE OR RADAR THAT
WOULD INDICATE WHEN THIS MAY OCCUR. THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BE FOCUSED ALONG THE PREFRONTAL BAND...AND WITH THE LAGGING FRONT
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI WE MAY NEED TO DROP THE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
BEHIND THE INITIAL SHOWER BAND.

AIRMET ZULU FOR MODERATE RIME ICING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI AND
OAHU FOR THE LAYER 140-FL200. THE 00Z LIHUE SOUNDING CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THIS RANGE FOR ICING POTENTIAL. THIS AIRMET WILL ALSO BE
EXPANDED EASTWARD TO MAUI COUNTY FOR THE EVENING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM HST SATURDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM HST SUNDAY FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT
MAALAEA BAY.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...DEJESUS
AVIATION...THE BRAVENDER