Damaging Wind in Georgia, May 27, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 440 PM...THE FOCUS OF BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT INTO THE NC PIEDMONT/FHILLS AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN SC THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
HIGHEST POPS (50 PERCENT) WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE SC MTNS AND FHILLS
INTO THE NC FHILLS. CONSIDERING THE FLAT CU FIELD...POPS WERE
LOWERED A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UPSTATE...AS
PROPAGATION OF CELLS NEAR THE NC BORDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE TOWARD
THE EAST... OWING TO WESTERLY MEAN CLOUD BEARING WINDS...AND
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL SHEAR FAVORING NEW CELL GROWTH ON THE EASTERN
FLANK OF ACTIVE CELLS. CONSIDERING BULK SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF
10 KTS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSCALE GROWTH/ORGANIZATION IS
LIKELY...SO THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT (OTHER THAN LIGHTNING AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL) WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLY A DAMAGING MICROBURST FOR UPDRAFTS THAT PULSE WELL
ABOVE THE -20 C LEVEL.

AS OF 230 PM...EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO BE ACROSS THE NC
MTNS AND NRN TIER...TAPERING OFF TO THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAY STILL SEE A SVR STORM OR TWO GIVEN
THE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES. CONVECTION SHUD
BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHRA COULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE NC MTNS OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHUD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS
TRY TO MOVE THRU THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA WED. FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LESS INSTABILITY THAN THAN TUESDAY...BUT REMAIN UNSTABLE. LEE
TROF WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. GUIDANCE BLEND SHOWS BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDOR WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF THERE. HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS WITH POP WHICH IS ALSO
CLOSE TO PREV FCST. SHUD SEE LESS OF A SVR CHC WED WITH LOWER
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE VALUES. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE RESIDES OVER GA AND THE CAROLINAS...AND AND UPPER
TROUGH BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST
COAST...AND THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS NEAR THE NW GULF COAST. AN UPPER
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON EXTENDING SE TO THE TN
RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY.

OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING UNTIL
COOLING STABILIZES THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING NC BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND SC BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR PRONOUNCED UPDRAFTS.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH GA AND SOUTHERN SC
ON FRIDAY. DESPITE SHIFTING WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...
MOISTURE WILL BE REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION DURING DAYTIME HEATING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE WEAKENING UPPER
RIDGE...WITH A DOWNWARD TREND TOWARD NORMAL AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT
AND THE FRONT PASSES BY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM NOVA SCOTIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FROM SE STATES TO OHIO
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH OF OUR AREA INTO
FLORIDA THEN DISSIPATES BY MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTH
ALONG ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TO START THE WEEK...UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
OVER ATLANTIC AS UPPER RIDGE BROADENS EASTWARD WITH GFS RIDGE AXIS
ALONG APPALACHIANS AROUND 00Z WED. THE CURRENT VERSION OF THE ECMWF
HAS MUCH FLATTER RIDGE OVER SE STATES WITH ANTICYCLONE OVER TEXAS.
GFS HAS A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMING INTO THE GULF FROM WESTERN
CARIBBEAN IN MID WEEK WHILE NOT SHOWN ON EC.

THE FRONT BEING IN THE VICINITY SATURDAY WILL KEEP FOCUS OF
CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS TO WESTERN UPSTATE AND NE GA. CONVECTION AT A
MINIMUM SUNDAY MAINLY SW AREAS NE GA TO SW NC MTNS. MODELS AGREE
THERE WILL BE UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NW IN MID WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL BY A CATEGORY OR TWO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION FIRING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA SHUD SLIDE SE
TOWARD THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON. PER PREVIOUS COLLABORATION...
HAVE KEPT A TEMPO FOR THUNDER WITH VARIABLE WIND GUSTS IN PLACE.
EXPECT WIND OUTSIDE OF STORMS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO REMAIN WSW INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE GOING CALM. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR VSBY
TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DOES MOVE OVER.
HOWEVER...CHC TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM. SHUD SEE BKN DEBRIS CLOUDS
THRU MUCH OF THE NITE WHICH THEN SCATTER OUT WED MORNING. WNW WINDS
PICK UP WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING WED.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...EXCEPT EARLIER VCTS AT
KAVL/KHKY AND LATER AT THE SC SITES. AGAIN...MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING AT KGSP/KGMU...BUT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM WITHOUT KNOWING
IF PRECIP FALLS THERE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR VSBY NEAR DAYBREAK AT
KHKY/KAND AND IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KAVL. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHUD BURN OFF
QUICKLY WED MORNING. SIMILAR TRENDS TO WIND AS WELL...EXCEPT THE
USUAL NNW WIND AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR DAILY THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORNING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND AT
FOOTHILL/PIEDMONT LOCATIONS WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS THE
PREVIOUS AFTN/EVENING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   60%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
309 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-281930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
309 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A
FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

SCZ007-008-272145-
CHEROKEE-SPARTANBURG-
458 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SPARTANBURG AND WEST
CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 454 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR I-85 AT I-26...OR 7 MILES WEST OF
SPARTANBURG...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  I-85 AT I-26...
  WESTGATE MALL...
  USC UPSTATE...
  SPARTANBURG...
  CEDAR SPRINGS...
  CEDAR SPRINGS...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3506 8214 3511 8173 3491 8170 3491 8171
      3487 8176 3487 8213

CDG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
507 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW ETOWAH            35.30N 82.60W
05/27/2014                   HENDERSON          NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON PLEASAND GROVE RD AND EADE RD.

&&

JOH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 N TRAVELERS REST      35.08N 82.44W
05/27/2014                   GREENVILLE         SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED A TREE BLOWN DOWN AT N BUNCOMBE RD
            AND HIGHWAY 25.

&&

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

NCZ068-508-272230-
CLEVELAND-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
538 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND WEST
CENTRAL CLEVELAND COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 533 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FOREST CITY...OR 5 MILES EAST OF
RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BOSTIC...
  ELLENBORO...
  POLKVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3545 8162 3525 8163 3528 8192 3542 8192

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
543 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

SCZ008-013-272230-
CHEROKEE-UNION-
543 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL UNION AND SOUTHERN
CHEROKEE COUNTIES IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 541 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR THICKETTY...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GAFFNEY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  THICKETTY...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3487 8175 3491 8171 3493 8175 3505 8181
      3509 8141 3505 8141 3505 8145 3503 8149
      3498 8148 3494 8149 3492 8147 3486 8147

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

GAZ018-272230-
STEPHENS-
548 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT STEPHENS COUNTY THROUGH 630 PM
EDT...

AT 545 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TOCCOA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  TOCCOA...
  EASTANOLEE...
  MARTIN...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3466 8337 3467 8330 3461 8323 3461 8316
      3459 8317 3459 8315 3458 8316 3454 8311
      3448 8318 3447 8338 3446 8340 3448 8346

CDG