Flash Flood in Florida, September 7, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
855 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ATMOSPHERE TOWARDS THE SE GA COASTLINE JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE. SO FAR THIS EVENING STILL LACKING
MUCH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION/ORGANIZED RAINFALL OVER THE LAND AREAS,
MEANWHILE THE COASTAL WATERS HAVE LIT UP WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD TO BRUNSWICK
ARE UNDER THE MOST THREAT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. SO FAR
DURING THIS EVENT THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THE HEAVY RAINFALL SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AS SOON AS EVENT APPEARS
MORE LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A SHORT-FUSE WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED. OTHERWISE...MAINLY LINGERING ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINING LAND AREAS AS THE JAX
SOUNDING STILL REPORTED A PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNT NEAR 2.25 INCHES
AND SHOWERS COULD POP-UP AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND SPOKES OF ENERGY STILL ROTATING AROUND IT.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL INITIALLY BE MOST PREVALENT AT SSI THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE JACKSONVILLE AREA LATER
TONIGHT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL OVERNIGHT DUE TO UPPER DISTURBANCE LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
TIMING THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT BUT THERE AT LEAST
SEEMS TO BE SOME GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS POINTING TO RAIN IN THE
JACKSONVILLE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT GNV WHERE LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
S TO SW FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAS INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
AND HAVE RAISED SCEC HEADLINE IN THE COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH SEAS
WILL STILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. STILL MAIN IMPACTS
CONTINUE TO BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES IN S/SW FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  91  73  89 /  40  70  60  60
SSI  75  86  74  86 /  50  60  60  60
JAX  72  89  73  90 /  50  70  60  70
SGJ  74  87  74  88 /  50  60  60  60
GNV  70  87  71  89 /  40  60  50  60
OCF  71  88  72  88 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/SHULER/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1010 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-071000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL
CAMDEN-
1010 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER COASTAL GEORGIA TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF
OUR REGION BY MONDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A HAZARD...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AND COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING
THE MAIN HAZARDS. DAILY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING MATERIALIZES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.