Deep column moisture and slow storm motion setup an environment for long durations of heavy rainfall and minor flooding. Radar precipitation estimates reached as high as five inches in many locations around west-central Florida.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TBW wrote it up.
Deep column moisture and slow storm motion setup an environment for long durations of heavy rainfall and minor flooding. Radar precipitation estimates reached as high as five inches in many locations around west-central Florida. Standing water was reported to have entered a building in Polk County, and several cars became stranded in deep water covering roadways in Hillsborough County. Additionally, the rain caused the roof of an apartment building in Manatee County to collapse.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 26, 1:30 PM EST, 2 hours earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
UNPROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA. MAIN FLOW
ARRIVES WITHIN A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE
QUICKLY RIDGING WELL NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THE FLOW THEN
FLATTENS OUT DOWNSTREAM AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SOUTH OF THIS MAIN FLOW WE FIND A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NEW ENGLAND OVERTOP AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. OUR FORECAST
REGION REMAINS ON THE VERY WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH THE 26/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE DOES NOT
SHOW MUCH CONSISTENCY WITH THE WIND DIRECTION THROUGH ANY DEPTH OF
THE COLUMN.
AS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS...THE PW HAS BEEN RISING AND IS NOW
OVER 2.2" AT KTBW...AND APPROACHING 2.4" AT KMFL. AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A MOIST PROFILE...LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY
POOR...GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COLUMN. THEREFORE...THE COLUMN IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION...BUT UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TYPE UPDRAFTS. THIS IS NOT
TO SAY THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE NOT POSSIBLE GIVEN PROPER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING TO INCREASE THE CAPE POTENTIAL...
HOWEVER...OVERALL THESE TYPE OF STORMS SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
LATE TODAY. THE GREATER THREAT FROM TODAYS STORMS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME SPOTS HAVE SEEN
CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL ALREADY THIS WEEK...AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY SHOULD ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OCCUR NEARBY.
BASED ON DISCUSSION OF CONDITIONS WITH COUNTY OFFICIALS...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR POLK...HIGHLANDS...AND HARDEE
COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROVIDING A SHALLOW LAYER OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND AN INVERTED TROUGH PROGRESSING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE
(OR AT LEAST DEVELOPING COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE) WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR ACTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
REGIONAL RADARS ARE ALREADY GETTING QUITE ACTIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MIGRATE WEST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HIGH RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EARLY EVENING STILL LOOK ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
TONIGHT...
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT / EVENING HOURS SHOULD STILL SEE SOME SCT
STORMS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE
ACTIVITY SLOWLY MIGRATING OFFSHORE INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE SECOND
HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY OVER THE LAND ZONES WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/STORMS ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SOUTH.
SATURDAY...
THE DAY WILL START OFF WITH WITH MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS
OVER THE LAND ZONES...WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH (OVER THE EASTERN
GULF) KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS/STORM GOING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TWO THINGS CHANGE ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY. FIRST...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL NOW BE PAST THE FL PENINSULA
AND CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. SECOND...THE
EASTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER AND
MORE DEFINED. LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH OF A SEA-BREEZE FROM FORMING...OR WILL KEEP AND FEEBLE
CIRCULATION PINNED AT OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST. SO...WE ARE
LOSING SOME OF OUR FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THIS
EFFECT WILL BE MOST FELT INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR. IN
ANTICIPATION OF AT LEAST MEAGER ENHANCED CONVERGENCE RIGHT AT THE
COAST...WILL HAVE BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SATURDAY MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG AND WEST THE I-75 CORRIDOR. FURTHER
INLAND WILL HAVE LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND DIMINISH THOSE RAIN CHANCES
EARLIER. THE COLUMN WILL STILL BE QUITE MOIST WITH PW VALUES WELL
ABOVE 2". SO...THE COLUMN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION SHOULD
THE PROPER LOW LEVEL TRIGGER BE IN PLACE. GOOD AGREEMENT IN BOTH THE
STATISTICAL AND CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUITES IN THIS WEST TO
EAST POP GRADIENT...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS WITHIN A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER
SIDE OF 90.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW THEN SETTING UP ACROSS THE
PENINSULA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
STATES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START THE LONG TERM PERIODS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE FORECAST
AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
LATE...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL LOCALES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA SUPPRESSING THE MEAN SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW PROGRESSING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. KPGD/KFMY/KRSW ARE ALREADY SEEING THE
INCLEMENT WEATHER...AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS UP INTO THE TAMPA BAY
REGION WILL SEE THE ACTIVITY ARRIVE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON
HOURS. AWAY FROM THE STORMS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT A
BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL MIGRATE OFF THE COAST WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF SUNSET WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND BE A THREAT TO THE COASTAL WATERS
TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
AGAIN TODAY WITH A MILD SEA BREEZE AFFECT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW MORNING...HOWEVER
NO WIDESPREAD FOG OR VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 89 76 89 / 40 60 40 50
FMY 74 90 74 91 / 30 60 20 60
GIF 74 90 74 90 / 20 50 20 50
SRQ 75 90 74 89 / 50 60 40 50
BKV 73 91 72 90 / 30 60 30 60
SPG 77 89 77 89 / 50 60 40 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-POLK.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY
LONG TERM...JELSEMAHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 431 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014 FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165- 239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870- 873-876-270845- SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY- COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO- COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA- COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS- INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE- INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS- CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND- TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM- ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM- BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM- TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM- ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM- BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM- 431 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED. JELSEMA
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Polk County Department of Emergency Management reported that two units of an apartment building in Mulberry had water entering the structure, with as much as six inches of water covering the floor.
Broadcast media relayed reports and pictures of cars stranded in water covering the roadway at the intersection of Hesperides and Lambright Streets in Tampa.
Broadcast media reported that heavy rain caused the roof to collapse at an apartment building, temporarily trapping one person inside. No injuries were reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 537308, 537305, 539272.