Lightning Strike in Florida, May 29, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
728 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ONCE AGAIN. AT KAPF...A GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITE AROUND 18Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE TAF SITE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO BUMP UP POPS 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD TO COME
MORE IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION TODAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AT OR ABOVE 1.7
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE. SO EXPECT HIGH END
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AGAIN CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS MORNING MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
IS SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
FIELDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.

NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD AGAIN
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND
WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY REAL UPPER RIDGING...AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINA. THIS WILL
DRIVE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND NEAR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MIDWEEK. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT TO SOUTH
FLORIDA DUE MAINLY TO A NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE RESULTING FROM A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AS A
RESULT...THIS WOULD KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT BECOMES HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS NOW COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF IN KEEPING THIS LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
TODAY SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE SURFACE HIGH HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS AROUND THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP AN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE AREA, WHICH WILL, IN TURN, KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM INLAND AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC TAF SITES.
HOWEVER, KAPF DOES HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, SO A PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED TO THEIR TAFS AFTER 18Z.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ATLANTIC COASTAL SHOWER EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.

MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW EASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  74  87  73 /  50  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  76  87  76 /  50  20  20  20
MIAMI            88  74  88  75 /  50  20  20  20
NAPLES           90  72  88  72 /  60  20  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...84/AK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
292015-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
402 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE
INTERIOR AREA, AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST TODAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

WIND: LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MILES PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TODAY.

FLOODING: LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER SLOW
MOVING HEAVY DOWNPOURS TODAY. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN ARE THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST LOCALS THAT TYPICALLY FLOOD DUE TO POOR
DRAINAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALSO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.