Hail and Damaging Winds in Florida, June 13, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND EAST COASTAL AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INTERACTING WITH A WEAK ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. KEPT VCTS
MENTION OUT OF KAPF TAF FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE GULF BREEZE
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION EAST OF KAPF. WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014/

.SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

SHORT TERM...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY ALONG WITH THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL THEN MOVE BACK NORTH ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY BEFORE SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY FLOW
ON SUNDAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS ON SATURDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. ON SUNDAY...SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE EAST ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW. SO WILL
KEEP THE POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ON SUNDAY WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN COOL OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH TEMPS IN THE -9 TO -11C TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
THE STRONG STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO THE SCATTERED POPS WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS...BEFORE SLOWLY SWINGING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  73  89  74 /  60  40  50  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  76  89  77 /  50  30  50  20
MIAMI            91  75  90  76 /  40  20  40  20
NAPLES           89  73  88  73 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1244 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
140445-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
1244 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 75.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE AND A FEW COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

HAIL: SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PENNIES...BUT THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW STORMS PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

FLOODING: HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN CONCERNS AT THIS TIME WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME OF THE STORMS ON FRIDAY COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.