Hail and Lightning Strike in Florida, July 15, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1016 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

.UPDATE...
SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED MORE TO THE S AND SSW IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY'S SOUNDING...WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST PWAT. SW SURFACE
FLOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL EVENTUALLY INTERSECT WITH THE
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK EAST. IN ADDITION SW WINDS HAVE LEAD TO EARLY
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE GULF WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SPUR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECTING A MORE
ACTIVE DAY IN THE EAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE POPS ARE AT LEAST LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSING ON INLAND PALM BEACH AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. STILL REMAINS A TYPICAL THREAT FOR URBAN WATER PROBLEMS
ALONG NUISANCE ROADWAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014/

AVIATION...
ACTIVE DAY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALREADY MOVED INTO THE
GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES AT KAPF.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GET AN EARLY START
ACROSS THE EAST COAST...AND THAT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY NOT
FORM...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OR A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING. SO KEPT VARIABLE WINDS AT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY. IF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP AROUND 16-17Z FOR
THE EAST COAST...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH BEST
CHANCE EARLY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FOR JULY WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA AND STALLING. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO
FORCE THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO SHIFT SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE AFFECTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE TO KEEP THE OVERALL
ATMOSPHERE MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT SHIFT THE STEERING FLOW SO THAT
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
PWAT REMAINING AT NEAR NORMAL VALUES, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT
AROUND 6C/KM WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND THE 500MB TEMPERATURES
MAINTAINING AT AROUND -7C WHICH IS ALSO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-JULY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES
VERY WEAK AT 5 MPH OR LESS. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS
WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST. AGAIN, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT LOOKING IMPRESSIVE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD EITHER SO STORMS WILL BE OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
VARIETY.

MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN SLOWLY BACKING TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 4
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  76  90  76 /  60  30  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  90  78 /  50  30  50  30
MIAMI            90  77  89  77 /  50  30  50  30
NAPLES           89  78  90  78 /  80  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....13/SI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1022 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
160230-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
1022 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LIGHTENING AND HEAVY
RAIN, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME URBAN FLOODING.

FLOODING: MINOR STREET FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS WITH POOR DRAINAGE, IS POSSIBLE.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAYBE HEAVY AT
TIMES, POSSIBLY CAUSING MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.