Cold in Florida, January 7 to 8, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
927 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Hard freeze warnings and very low wind chills will remain the main
story tonight as arctic air continues to spread into the tri-state
region.  Most of southeast AL into swrn GA and the inland panhandle
locales are already below freezing as of 7p.  Normally the presence
of high clouds and moderate winds would temper overnight lows.
However, cold air advection will remain fairly pronounced tonight
with reinforcing shot of cold air spreading into central AL/GA with
a 10-15 degree temp gradient between central and nrn AL at 7p.  This
will keep temps falling for much of the night and bring long
duration freeze event.  Overall, little if any changes needed for
overnight grids or current highlights.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]...VFR conditions will persist at all terminals
through the rest of the period. Remaining high clouds should
diminish in coverage this evening with mostly clear skies likely
across our region Tuesday morning and afternoon. Northwest winds
will decrease to around 10 kt near the surface at all terminals
quickly this evening.

&&

.Hydrology...
All area rivers are now below flood stage. The next chance for
rainfall is Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

&&

.Prev Discussions [255 PM EST]...

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Temperatures will remain very cold on Tuesday as a the arctic high
tracks eastward along the northern Gulf Coast. Looking at the recent
performance of the guidance with temperatures in our area as well
as upstream, the raw daytime guidance appears to be running a
little to cold, so have kept max temps for Tuesday a bit closer to
the MOS guidance. Even with this adjustment, still expect
temperatures across the northern counties to remain below freezing
all day on Tuesday. South of this, expect highs only in the mid
30s. The forecast max temperature of 35 at Tallahassee would be
the coldest max temperature since 1996.

Another hard freeze is expected on Wednesday morning as the
anticyclone makes its closest approach to the area. Two factors
may impact the eventual lows by diminishing the effect of
radiational cooling. First, as the night wears on, the surface
high will be sliding northeast into the Carolina Piedmont. This
will allow the gradient to tighten slightly across the forecast
area, possibly generating just enough wind to keep the boundary
layer from fully decoupling. Second, models are indicating some
high clouds moving across the southern half of the area tonight,
which would further diminish radiational cooling. Given these
factors, have kept min temperatures closer to raw guidance numbers
and above the lower/mid teens suggested by the MOS guidance. This
will lead to lows in the upper teens to lower 20s for most of the
area, still firmly in hard freeze territory.

The airmass will modify on Wednesday, with highs reaching the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Moisture will begin to increase from the
east Wednesday night, with lows ranging from the upper 20s over
the western zones to the lower 40s in the southeastern Big Bend.
Another hard freeze is not expected at this time.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
As an upper level trough lifts up the NErn CONUS, the Arctic airmass
will shift northeastward and allow the slow return of warmer, moist
air to the region. By the end of the week, two shortwave impulses
will propagate through the upper level longwave pattern. On
Thursday, the first impulse will increase moisture and rain chances.
The second impulse will deepen more and is forecast to develop a
cold front that will move through the area Saturday and Sunday (rain
chances 30-50%). Temperatures Thursday will be closer to average
with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s Thursday night . Daytime
temperatures across the area will warm to the upper 60s and low 70s
for the weekend.

.MARINE...
Winds gusting to gale force and waves over 10 feet will gradually
diminish starting this evening as high pressure moves eastward
along the northern Gulf Coast. Expect the offshore Gale Warning
to be dropped by the evening update, with Small Craft Advisories
continuing through late Tuesday morning. Conditions will then
continue to slowly improve through late week with light to
moderate northeasterly flow.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will plunge into the low 20s Tuesday as
more of the very dry, cold air moves into the region. Winds will
lower as the surface high pressure slides further south, however,
preventing us from reaching red flag criteria. Moisture will begin
to return to the region Wednesday. No red flag conditions are
anticipated fore the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   21  35  19  52  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   24  36  27  50  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        16  32  17  48  31 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        17  32  17  49  31 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      20  34  20  51  37 /   0   0   0   0  20
Cross City    24  39  23  58  44 /   0   0   0   0  20
Apalachicola  24  36  26  51  40 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Hard Freeze Warning until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ Tuesday for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ Tuesday to 11 AM
     EST /10 AM CST/ Wednesday for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ Tuesday for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Hard Freeze Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for Brooks-Decatur-
     Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-Seminole-Thomas.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 11 AM EST Wednesday for
     Brooks-Decatur-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-Seminole-Thomas.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Hard Freeze Warning until 11 AM EST Wednesday for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Dougherty-Early-Irwin-
     Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell-Tift-Turner-
     Worth.

AL...Wind Chill Advisory until Noon CST Tuesday for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM CST Wednesday for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...EVANS/LAHR
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...WESTON/CAMP
AVIATION...EVANS/LAHR
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...MOORE