Damaging Wind in Florida, August 1, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
219 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS MOVING
SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...A BIT QUICKER SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE CENTRAL
VOLUSIA COAST TO NORTH BREVARD COAST AS WELL AS NEAR THE COASTS OF
SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. STILL EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE GRADUALLY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH LATE DAY/EARLY
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY VENTURES INLAND. ADDITIONAL
SEA/LAKE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASED COVERAGE. MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SLOW
AND GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW CELLS. OTHER THREATS REMAIN GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DECREASE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING. CLOUD DEBRIS
FROM THE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
MILD AND IN THE 70S.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

WEEKEND...A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL INTERACT WITH A SUBTLE SFC WAVE APCHG FROM THE BAHAMAS DURING
THE PERIOD TO HELP PRODUCE SCT MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WEAKLY ONSHORE WINDS IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS COUPLED WITH
A BAGGY ILL DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN AT THE SFC SHOULD FAVOR
BOUNDARY INDUCED SHOWERS WITH INLAND FOCUS FOR BEST PCPN CHCS BY MID
AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO
NEUTRAL TO WARM TEMPS EXISTING @H5. SUNDAY RAIN COVERAGE A CATEGORY
HIGHER DUE TO CLOSER INFLUENCE OF SFC WAVE TO AREA.

EXTENDED...WL BE WATCHING FOR BERTHA IN SOME FORM OR ANOTHER TO
EMERGE NORTH OF HISPANOLA. CURRENT NHC TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS AS A LOW END STORM EARLY MON THEN RECURVING
WELL EAST OF THE STATE EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH EARLY TUE. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH RECURVES BERTHA
SHOULD INFLUENCE LOCAL CONDITIONS IN THE FORM OF SCT PCPN WITH
GENERALLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO CHC OF STORMS DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND UNSTABLE CONDS WITH ABSENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SLOW GOING THUS FAR FOR CONVECTION WITH ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. STILL
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS THE BOUNDARY HEADS
INLAND THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH AN EVENTUAL COLLISION WITH ITS
WESTERN COUNTERPART. A FEW STORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. VFR ALL
AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH THINNING CLOUD DEBRIS. ON SAT...SCT AFTN
SHRA/TSRA AREAWIDE AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
VENTURE INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT...MAINLY ESE TO E FLOW THRU THE OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS NEAR THE COAST AND 10-15 KTS OFFSHORE. SEAS AOB
3 FT. FOCUS FOR ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT OFF LAND AND
BACK OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED MARINE DISCUSSION...

WEEKEND SEA HGHTS WL REMAIN IN THE 2-3FT RANGE WITH AN SLOW AND
STEADY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERTHA TRACK NEARS THE WESTERN
ATLC WATERS. SEA HGHTS IN THE 4 TO 5 FT RANGE POSSIBLE AROUND TUE-
WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  90  75  90 /  20  40  30  60
MCO  76  93  74  92 /  30  40  30  60
MLB  76  89  75  89 /  20  40  30  60
VRB  73  89  74  90 /  20  30  30  60
LEE  76  93  76  92 /  30  40  30  60
SFB  76  93  76  93 /  30  40  30  60
ORL  76  93  76  92 /  30  40  30  60
FPR  73  89  74  89 /  20  30  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....VOLKMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1155 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-012200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1155 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FORM BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG BY
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES MERGE. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 50
MPH. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTH AROUND 10 MPH WHICH WILL PROMOTE
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR. STORM MOTION
WILL NORTH AROUND 10 MPH. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS...AS WELL AS FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCAL HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR
LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL.
LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM THE STORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD FOLLOWED
BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

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