A strong trough of low pressure and cold front moved across California and into Arizona. Southerly wind ahead of the storm brought deep moisture ahead of the front setting the stage for severe thunderstorms and heavy rain.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A strong trough of low pressure and cold front moved across California and into Arizona. Southerly wind ahead of the storm brought deep moisture ahead of the front setting the stage for severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. Rainfall from this storm were as high as 2.50 inches in 24-36 hours. Little Colorado River near Winslow peaked at about 7 feet below the railing of the bridge on Interstate 40.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 27, 9:50 AM MST, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 950 AM MST SAT SEP 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TODAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THREATS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. STORMS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH COUNTRY ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A LIGHT FROST MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. && .DISCUSSION...STORM THREAT AND PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER IMPACT AREA IS EVOLVING TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND APPROX 100 MILES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO EASTERN ARIZONA. SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BAND WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...AND LEAD TO A PERSISTENCE OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE NET EFFECT ON THE FORECAST...SOMEWHAT LESS PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE THREAT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER EASTERN COCONINO...APACHE...AND NAVAJO COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND A MORE FOCUSED IMPACT DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DISCUSSION HAVE THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE HANDLED WELL...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS TO HANDLE SHORT-TERM WEATHER TRENDS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /345 AM MST/...THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE APPROACHING STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ITS IMPACTS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL TIMING AND IMPACTS BRING THE SEVERE THREAT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THIS REASON...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM MST FOR COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. THERE IS ALSO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR YAVAPAI...COCONINO AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES THROUGH 5 PM MST. SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS BEING OBSERVED IN COCONINO...YAVAPAI AN NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST INTO GILA/NAVAJO/APACHE COUNTIES. SEVERE STORM THREATS WILL INCLUDE LARGE HAIL (GREATER THAN 1 INCH)...DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULE OUT...BUT THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS SMALL AND A TORNADO WATCH IS NOT NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. DEEP MOISTURE HAS MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF ARIZONA THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY AT 35 TO 45 MPH...BUT TRAINING STORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WE RECOMMEND THE PUBLIC PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND RECONSIDER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NAVAJO COUNTY ...APACHE COUNTY...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL HAVE DIMINISHED. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM ARIZONA A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. A DRY AND COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS...FOR THE MOST PART. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AZ TODAY. EXPECT WDSPRD CU/TCU/CB WITH BASES FROM 4-6KFT AGL. NMRS SHRA/ TSRA ANS SCT +TSRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60KTS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO. FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS AFT 11Z-13Z...WITH SOME IFR/LIFR IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS. STORM MOTIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH 20 30 MPH. AFT 03Z SUN...PRECIP COVERAGE DECREASING WEST OF A PAGE TO PRESCOTT LINE...AREAS OF BKN020 CIGS REMAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507 IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM MST FOR AZC005-025. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ004-005>009-015- 016-018-037-038. && PUBLIC.........TC AVIATION.......DL FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 421 AM MST SAT SEP 27 2014 AZZ004>018-037>040-280700- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 421 AM MST SAT SEP 27 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AND TONIGHT A SEVERE THUNDER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES THROUGH 11 AM MST. SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/WATCH/WW0507.HTML FOR MORE DETAILS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS IN NORTHERN ARIZONA COCONINO COUNTY...YAVAPAI COUNTY...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY THROUGH 5 PM MST TODAY. SEE PHXFFAFGZ FOR DETAILS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN ARIZONA COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL FROM 1 INCH OR GREATER...DAMAGING WINDS FROM 58 MPH OR GREATER. THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES...HOWEVER THE THREAT IS FAIRLY SMALL AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO GILA COUNTY...NAVAJO COUNTY...AND APACHE COUNTY. DUE TO THE STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT... MANY AREAS WILL SEE REPEATED STORM ACTIVITY TODAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF MULTIPLE STORMS FORM AND MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...USUALLY OVER A 30 TO 60 MINUTE DURATION. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND STORMS WILL MOVE AT 20 TO 30 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY DECREASE FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS FOUND MAINLY ACROSS NAVAJO COUNTY...APACHE COUNTY...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBILITY. EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 153 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:11 UTC.
5 heavy rain, 1 tornado, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain fell about 11 miles west of Ash Fork. A trained spotter reported between 1.50 and 1.74 inches of rain in 90 minutes.
Very heavy rain fell for 10 to 15 minutes with mostly pea sized hail. Some hail was 1/2 inch in diameter. The heavy rain flooded the yards.
A trained spotter reported 1.21 inches of rain in one hour.
Path length over 2 miles with a with of 0.4 miles. EF0-EF1 damage. The tornado occurred between 155 PM and 205 PM MST. Three homes were significantly damaged with light damage to other homes. Numerous pine trees were snapped off and uprooted.
Runoff from heavy rain was overflowing the concrete drainage in a residential area. There was several inches of water on the property.
A spotter reported 1.75 inches of rain in 90 minutes.
The Little Colorado River was running very high. The river rose to about 7 feet below the top railing of the bridge.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Arizona, 2014Warnings in Arizona, September 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 542323, 542322, 542324, 542327, 542325, 542326, 543490.