Flood in Alaska, July 13 to 14, 2014

Name: Flood in Alaska, July 13 to 14, 2014
Start: 2014-07-13T14:00
End: 2014-07-14T04:00
Location: Alaska

July 13 to 14, 2014 · NWS AJK · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A weather front stalled over the area and produced steady moderate rainfall from July 12- 13. The front produced rainfall amounts from one to two inches.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.

A weather front stalled over the area and produced steady moderate rainfall from July 12- 13. The front produced rainfall amounts from one to two inches. The previous month was well above normal for precipitation with 160% of normal at the Skagway airport. Temperatures were on the warm side with freezing levels well above the mountain tops of five thousand five hundred feet. The warm temperatures aided in the snow melt runoff into the the Taiya River basin.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 13, 4:25 AM AKST, 9 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 4:25 AM AKST, 9 hours 35 minutes before

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
525 AM AKDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
EXTENDS NORTH DIAGONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION REMAINS CLEAR AND
COMPLETE AS INDICATED ON AMSU IMAGERY, BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE MUCH DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL TRACK
NORTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND KEEP RAIN GOING OVER MOST OF
THE SAME AREAS AS YESTERDAY BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
TODAY AND THEN DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT
HAS PREVENTED THE FRONT FROM MOVING EAST IS ALL BUT GONE AS OF
THIS MORNING, BUT HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY BUILDING IN OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF FROM THE SOUTH AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE
EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS, AREAS OF FOG, AND RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY
OVER A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE. THE ONLY AREAS THAT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TROUBLE SPOTS TODAY ARE PETERSBURG, WRANGELL, AND
KETCHIKAN. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER PRINCE OF WALES EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS ALOFT FAIRLY
LIGHT, SO NO TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED IN CLOUD OR ON TOP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE STALLED FRONT HAS RESULTED IN MINOR FLOODING ON
THE TAIYA RIVER NEAR SKAGWAY. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE WATER LEVEL FAIRLY STABLE BETWEEN
16.6 AND 16.7 FEET. BASED ON EXPECTED RAINFALL TODAY, IT IS
LIKELY THAT THE FLOOD ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED, BUT A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE WATER LEVEL ABOVE WHERE IT IS RIGHT
NOW DOES NOT SEEM AS LIKELY.

&&

 USED A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GEM FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND.
POP AND QPF FROM GEM. TEMPS ADJUSTED PER GFS MOS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
FOR THE ALL LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WEAKENS AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
THE REMNANTS OF THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL PASSAGE CONNECTED TO A
LONG FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BAND TO THE SOUTH WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION TO A CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE PANHANDLE COASTAL
SECTIONS . EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM FOR THEIR GOOD
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

 SYNOPTIC PATTERNS REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH
MODEL SPREADS CONTINUALLY MAINTAIN CERTAIN LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MAINTAINED THE WPC ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FORMATION OF MARINE STRATUS. A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE NORTHERN GULF TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONSEQUENTLY ERODE AND OPEN A DOOR FOR THE INCOMING FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

FRITSCH/AHN

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Taiya Inlet

When: July 13, 2:00 PM AKST to July 14, 4:00 AM AKST
Where: Taiya Inlet County, 9.9 mi NNW of Skagway to 3.53 mi N of Skagway
Cause: Heavy Rain / Snow Melt
Reported by: River/Stream Gage
Coordinates: 59.589, -135.371

The northern inner channels has been very wet into the early summer. That portion of the HSA is usually one of the driest locations in Southeast Alaska. The wet soils from the moist antecedent conditions has made the Taiya River basin very susceptible to flooding along the Chillkoot trail in the first half of July. The two day rain total from July 12 and 13 were one point twenty inches at the Skagway airport to one point eighty-one inches in the headwaters of the basin. There was also significant snow melt from warm temperatures at high elevation to increase the snow melt process and runoff into the basin and Taiya River.

Moderate rain first moved into the area on Saturday July 12 and it remain steady through most of the night but did taper off in the early morning hours of Sunday July 13. The runoff from the rain through the 12th caused the Taiya River to rise a three quarters of a foot in eighteen hours to be above minor flood stage of 16.5 feet by the evening of July 12. There was a lull in rainfall early Sunday morning but that did not cause the river to fall through early Sunday afternoon but remain steady just above minor flood stage. Another burst of steady moderate rain rates moved back into the basin in the late morning/early afternoon on Sunday and pushed the river above moderate flood stage of 17.0 feet. The moderate rain in the headwaters decreased and the Taiya River crested at 17.38 feet Sunday evening and slowly fell below moderate flood stage by 4 am on Monday July 14. Steady light rain lingered over the basin and the Taiya River remained above minor flood stage through Monday before the stationary front finally moves east of the area and the all of the precipitation ended.

Above 17.0 feet there is significant flooding along the Chillkoot trail within the The Klondike Gold Rush National Park with flood waters at least thigh deep in places along the trail. The Park Service may close the trail above moderate flood stage due to safety concerns from the high and swift water.

What these are

Flood: Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Alaska in 2014 Every state in 2014 This day in weather history Warnings in Alaska, July 2014

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 538086.