Blizzard in Alaska, January 5 to 6, 2014

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
603 AM AKST SUN JAN 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...RIDGE OVER NORTH PACIFIC AND EASTERN ALASKA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MON WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR. TROUGH FROM BETHEL TO KODIAK 3AM MON MOVING TO NOME TO
DENALI PARK TO VALDEZ 9PM MON THEN TO KOTZEBUE TO FORT YUKON TO
DAWSON CANADA 9AM TUE AND DISSIPATING THEREAFTER. LOW OVER THE
PRIBILOFS WEAKENING AS A NEW LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUE AM THEN MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF
OF ALASKA THROUGH WED CAUSING THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN. STRONG TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN TO BARROW TO CAPE LISBURNE 3PM
WED.

SURFACE...1048 MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC OCEAN CONTINUING
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE. 978 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY
WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
THROUGH 3AM MON. ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION FROM BRISTOL BAY TO
FAIRBANKS TO EAGLE MOVING TO GAMBELL TO NOME TO THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE 3AM MON THEN TO THE BERING
STRAIT TO PRUDHOE BAY 3PM MON BECOMING DIFFUSE.

MODELS...IN NEAR TERM MODELS ARE CLOSE IN MAIN FEATURES ALOFT AND
WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS. IN MEDIUM TERM THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE SIMILAR IN DIGGING AN ARCTIC UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST OVER
THE STATE...THOUGH THE GFS BRINGS A CLOSED LOW SOUTHWEST OVER
WESTERN ALASKA AND COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF OVER WESTERN ALASKA.
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS BRING SIMILAR COLD AIR SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -30C IN
THE UPPER YUKON VALLEY.

NORTH SLOPE...OVER THE EASTERN COAST EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
SOME MORE SO HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY FOR ZONE 204 TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING...ESPECIALLY IN ANTICIPATION OF WINDS GUSTING AROUND 60
MPH. WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY FOR ZONE 203 AS WINDS SHOULD NOT
INCREASE QUITE AS MUCH THERE. AS OCCLUSION MOVES NORTH OVER THE
AREA MON SOME POTENTIAL FOR FALLING SNOW MAINLY EASTERN TWO
COASTAL ZONES THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE. ZONES TO THE
WEST WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS TODAY AND SOME BLOWING
SNOW...ALSO A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THE OVERRUNNING OF THE OCCLUSION
MON AND MON NIGHT.

WESTERN ALASKA...THE OCCLUSION MOVING NORTH AND WEST OVER THE AREA
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. WINDS
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AS OCCLUSION STARTS TO WEAKEN. WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTH OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE THERE
WILL BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF AMOUNTS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE OCCLUSION HAS CAUSED WINDS TO
PICK UP ALONG SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN INTERIOR...AS WELL AS NEAR
THE ALASKA RANGE. AS THE OCCLUSION MOVES NORTH TODAY WINDS OVER
SUMMITS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND MIDDLE TANANA
VALLEY...THEN DECREASE FARTHER NORTH THIS EVENING. WINDS THROUGH
ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND DIMINISH A BIT
MON ONCE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SNOW WILL BE PRETTY SPARSE
OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR NOW THAT THE OCCLUSION HAS MOVED NORTH
AND THE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE ALASKA RANGE HAS SET IN TO SHIELD THE
SOUTHERN ZONES FROM MOST OF THE PRECIP. STILL EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF FAIRBANKS AND TANANA INTO EARLY MONDAY
THOUGH...HELPED ALONG BY UPSLOPE FLOW AND FARTHER AWAY FROM
CHINOOK EFFECT OFF THE ALASKA RANGE. THESE SOUTH WINDS HAVE
BOOSTED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S IN THE DENALI AREA. OTHER
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR SHOULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND
20S INTO MON AS THE CHINOOK CONTINUES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ235.
&&

JL JAN 14