Blizzard in Alaska, January 16 to 18, 2014

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1202 PM AKST WED JAN 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN ALASKA IS IN THE MIDST OF A PATTERN CHANGE AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOWS. IN ANY
CASE THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER AS THE NORTH
PACIFIC JET STREAM DRIVES MULTIPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS NORTHWARD INTO
THE STATE...ALONG WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL OSCILLATE SOME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS PUSH WARM AIR NORTHWARD AND THEN DRAG COOLER
AIR IN AS THEY EXIT THE REGION...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF A DYING OCCLUSION STRETCHED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. A MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AND SPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE LOW DEPARTS EAST INTO THE
YUKON TERRITORY. A MUCH STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
BRISTOL BAY AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH THE DEPTH
AND TRACK OF THIS LOW...WITH THE GFS MUCH DEEPER AND A TRACK
FURTHER WEST THAN THE NAM OR ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF THE PATH...THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUMP THE FIRST BIG PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AND INCREASE THE NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE
SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.

NORTH SLOPE...WINDS CHILLS AROUND 50 BELOW MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARCTIC BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL...SO THIS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN A BORDERLINE EVENT. OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
ALONG WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AND BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

WEST COAST...RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST THE SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND MAY
PRODUCE SOME LOCAL BLOWING SNOW. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO INTO THE
YUKON AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND BECOME ESPECIALLY STRONG BY FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FROM MCGRATH TO THE
LOWER YUKON VALLEY BEGINNING FRIDAY AS WELL.

INTERIOR...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR
THIS EVE...THE SNOW REDEVELOPING FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AND DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING NORTHEAST
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW OVER INTERIOR
SUMMITS AND CHANNELED AREAS...AND STRONG CHINOOK WINDS IN THE
ALASKA RANGE.

IT LOOKS LIKE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WE WILL
LIKELY NEED ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS FOR A VARIETY OF WEATHER. AT
THIS TIME I WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ABOUT THE
UPCOMING WEATHER AND LET THE NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS BEGIN TO ISSUE
HAZARD STATEMENTS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF FRIDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

EWP JAN 14