Drought in Texas, November 1 to 30, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1249 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE HRL AND BRO AERODROMES
...BUT HAS COMPLETELY CLEARED THE MFE SITE. THIS STATIONARY FRONT
WILL ALLOW LOW AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TO AFFECT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. DEGRADED
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS TOMORROW.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER RGV FROM THE NORTH AND WILL
IT BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY LOW CLD FORMTION LATER TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
A FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WIND PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE REGION AT THIS
TIME KBRO RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT A LATE EVENING SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY IS FORMING AND IS STARTING TO PUSH WEST. THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS MARINE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW
SOME LOW LEVEL SC DECKS AND AREAS OF FOG TO FORM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. BIG DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BETWEEN THE MAV
MOS AND MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE MET MOS SHOWING MUCH LOWER
CEILINGS AND VSBYS THAN THE MAV MOS. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE LOWER
CEILINGS AND VSBYS FOR THE CURRENT TAF SET AS EXPECT THE DRY AIR
ADVECTION TO BE PRETTY LIMITED TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE
DEWPOINTS FAIRLY ELEVATED. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW CLDS AND
FOG. WILL INCLUDE VFR CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE DURING
THE MID RANGE PERIODS OF THE THREE TAF SETS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A COLD FRONT IS NORTH OF
THE CWA IN SOUTH TEXAS...CLOSING IN ON THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES
AND ON TRACK TO MAKE IT TO THE LOWER VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGER CONVECTION IS PULLING OUT OVER THE GULF...WITH ONLY ISLD
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. WINDS IN THE
MID VALLEY NORTH AND WEST ARE VEERING TO WEST. WHILE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL TAKE LONGER TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. PWAT WILL
STEADILY DECLINE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...NONETHELESS...FROM OVER
TWO INCHES NOW TO AROUND AN INCH AT BRO BY SATURDAY MORNING AS A
SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. EVEN BY THIS
EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ALOFT IN THE MID
ATMS...WHERE A COUPLE OF BKN TO OVC LAYERS WILL KEEP THINGS
CLOUDY. RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT WERE RATCHETED DOWN...EFFECTIVELY
ENDING THE EVENT...HOWEVER...AS WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND DEW
POINTS STAY UP...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...BUT MAINLY FOR THE LOWER VALLEY SINCE SOME DRIER AIR
WILL ARRIVE UPSTREAM. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL
DECKS ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR 90 ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 83 WEST OF
MCALLEN. MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE THE STANDARD FOR THE REST OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY...AGAIN WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. DRYING WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE CWA.
TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER
AIR...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EAST TO MOSTLY CLEAR WEST...AND NO
FOG.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS THE
TAKEAWAY FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER WITH LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY STARTING TO LOSE THE BATTLE WITH INCREASINGLY MORE FREQUENT
COOLING/DRYING FRONTS. NO SIGN YET OF THE 'BIG BLOWOUT' COLD
FRONT...MORE OF A PROGRESSION OF A SLOW RECESSION OF TEMPERATURE
WITH EACH PASSAGE.

WEEKEND:  SATURDAY BEGINS THE PERIOD WITH A GEM...COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AND A REFRESHING NORTH BREEZE UNDER PLENTY
OF GOLDEN SUNSHINE. PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SCOOTS INTO EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA ALLOWING SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER RIDGE TO NOSE INTO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMOVING THE REMAINING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER VALLEY AT OR BEFORE DAYBREAK. A SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE START WITH MID 50S RANCHLANDS TO LOWER 60S VALLEY WILL
RISE THROUGH THE 70S THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST AREAS
TOUCHING 80 OR SO BY MID AFTERNOON.

CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS SET THE STAGE FOR QUICKLY FALLING EVENING
TEMPERATURES BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT PATCHY
SHALLOW FIELD FOG TO DEVELOP IN PREFERRED AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH CAN CREATE SHARPLY LOWER VISIBILITY
FOR DRIVERS...SOMETHING TO CONSIDER FOR LATE NIGHT REVELERS AND
EARLY MORNING CHURCHGOERS.  WILL NOT MENTION IN FORECAST GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE THIS FAR OUT. UPPER 40S FOR RANCHLAND/RURAL
AREAS...EVEN A FEW LOW TO MID 40S IN DRAINAGE BOWLS SUCH AS ZAPATA
COUNTY AIRPORT...WITH LOW TO MID 50S IN URBAN AREAS AND TOWARD THE
COAST.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE ZIPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND CENTER AXIS PASSES
EAST OF REGION BY EVENING.  SHOULD BE A DYNAMITE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE
ONSET OF CIRRUS...THE HARBINGER OF THE NEXT WEATHER CHANGE...NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL SUNSET.  LIGHT EAST WINDS AND QUICK MODIFICATION OF
CHILLY LOW LEVELS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES QUICKLY INTO THE 70S BY
LATE MORNING...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN.

BOTTOM LINE: DOESN'T GET BETTER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON LAND AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE VALLEY.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: CHANGES ARRIVE QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS SPEEDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER IN TEXAS.  LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY VEER
AROUND THE THE SOUTHEAST AS WARM FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS/ISENTROPIC PACKING ZONE WHICH SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL/CENTRAL TEXAS.  AT THE SAME TIME...SHORT WAVE ENERGY HOOKS
UP WITH PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM CURRENT INVEST 97E NOW WEST
OF THE MEXICAN RIVIERA...WHICH WILL NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE BEING CAPTURED BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RAPIDLY SWEEPING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH
CENTRAL/CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY.

THE RGV WILL ONCE AGAIN 'WAVE' TO THE WAVE AS POTENTIAL TORRENTIAL
RAINS COULD CAUSE A RESURGENCE OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE AUSTIN/SAN
ANTONIO AREA AND POINTS NORTH AND CONTINUE TO HELP FILL CENTRAL
TEXAS RESERVOIRS. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MAY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY MONDAY MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT IMPACT
SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY RETURN TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER MONDAY...WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE
60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AND BACK INTO SOMEWHAT SOUPY 80S BY
AFTERNOON.

CONTINUED THICKNESS RISE AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY BRING A SEPTEMBER FEEL BACK WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY...AND WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY AFTERNOON.  ASIDE FROM
MORNING STREAMER SHOWERS AT BEST...RAIN CHANCES/COVERAGE LOOK
LIMITED AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER ECMWF CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT IS THE PRIMARY ISSUE.
GFS ACCELERATES THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS OF THE 12Z
RUNS WHICH IS SUPPORTED GENERALLY BY THE 00Z ENSEMBLES.  ECMWF
REMAINS TARDY BY SOME 12 TO 18 HOURS...BUT THE 00Z RUN APPEARS TO
COME AROUND TO THE MORE REALISTIC PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WHEREAS
YESTERDAY'S 12Z RUN CUTOFF A LOW ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS/SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO REGION WHICH SEEMED ODD IN TYPICAL TRANSITION SEASON
PROGRESSIVE FLOW.  FAST FLOW ALOFT OFTEN PUSHES FRONTS THROUGH EVEN
MORE QUICKLY THAN DAY 5-7 MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST...AND WITH MODEL
TRENDS/ENSEMBLES LEANING THIS WAY WILL CONTINUE TOWARD A FASTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT AND BRING IN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  LOW
LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUNCH DECENT GUSTS AS WELL AND WILL
RAISE VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TRICKY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT APPEARS STRENGTH OF
COOL ADVECTION WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL EVENING SO WILL MIX OUT A WARM
AFTERNOON BEHIND ANY EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. COOL BUT PLEASANT MORNING THURSDAY SETS UP ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE DAY BY AFTERNOON...ASSUMING THE SPEEDY TREND CONTINUES.
COOLER AIR MASS THAN THIS SATURDAY SUGGESTS 70S AND WILL LEAN THIS
DIRECTION.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA. SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP MARINE WEATHER UNSETTLED. PREVIOUSLY
BUILT UP WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT TO MDT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FINALLY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SEAS
DECREASE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE A QUIETER DAY AS WINDS VEER TO EAST AND
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER OUT INTO THE GULF. A REINFORCING SURGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY: ENOUGH DRY ADVECTION AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY ACROSS THE GULF AND
PROBABLY FOR AWHILE ON LAGUNA MADRE...A SOMEWHAT ROUGH
BOATING/FISHING MORNING DESPITE THE FAIR WEATHER. CONDITIONS BEGIN
IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: A PERFECT DAY SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS AS WINDS VEER AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTHEAST BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS...AND NO
PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY: MAY SEE ISOLATED STREAMERS AFTER DAYBREAK AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL TRY TO EDGE UP...BUT WILL BE COUNTERED BY A MODEST MARINE
LAYER WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE GULF AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS WHILE THE
LAGUNA FLIRTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: MORE OF THE SAME WITH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED STREAMER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM.  PRESSURE GRADIENT
ONLY MODEST AND SUPPORTING PERHAPS AN OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS IN THE GULF...CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH MARINE LAYER STRENGTHENING A BIT.

CLIMATE...WITH TODAY'S RAINS LARGELY OVER BUT PLENTY WARM AND HUMID
OVERALL...OCTOBER LOCKING UP ANOTHER ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
MONTH...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE 1981-2010
NUMBER...WITH AREA WIDE RAINFALL ENDING UP WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE DEEP S. TEXAS/RGV REGION...2 TO 3 INCHES BELOW OR LESS
THAN HALF OF THE 30 YEAR AVERAGE.  DRY FRONTS THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK SUPPORT THE STARTING TREND OF THE NOVEMBER 2013 TO JANUARY 2014
PERIOD...MEANING OUR DROUGHT IS FAR FROM OVER AND MAY BE
RESURRECTING ITSELF IN TIME.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1105 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-010945-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1105 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY...AND ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ251-256-257-010945-
KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1105 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS TONIGHT ACROSS AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST AT AREA BEACHES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ248>250-252>255-010945-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-
1105 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.