A potent upper level shortwave trough approached from the Desert Southwest, entering the South Plains during the afternoon. A deepening trough, sharpening dryline, and lingering frontal boundary all combined near the surface to produce a triple point.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A potent upper level shortwave trough approached from the Desert Southwest, entering the South Plains during the afternoon. A deepening trough, sharpening dryline, and lingering frontal boundary all combined near the surface to produce a triple point. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developed along this triple point, just west of the edge of the caprock, as deep layer lift was enhanced by the upper-level shortwave trough. These storms moved off to the east producing severe hail from near the edge of the caprock out across portions of the Rolling Plains and extreme southern Texas panhandle.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 29, 11:42 AM CST, 3 hours 7 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1242 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013 .UPDATE... STORMS STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG AN INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED DRYLINE PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED IN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FASHION FROM NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK BACK THROUGH ROUGHLY THE INTERSTATE 27/US 87 CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AND MIX EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS AND PUSHES EAST OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WILL BACK WINDS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...PROMOTING SOME ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. HAVING SAID THAT...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL MAX OUT NEAR 35-40 KNOTS PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE LIKELY ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND INSIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR. COMPLICATING THE SCENARIO IS WHERE A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WILL BE POSITIONED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INTERSECTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION FIRST OCCURS. EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO REMAIN IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND EXTREME NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS. A LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY PLACING A LID ON TOWERING CUMULUS. HOWEVER...FAVORABLY TIMED MID- UPPER LEVEL LIFT CURRENTLY ENTERING SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL AID IN FORCING FOR ASCENT. STORMS WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 20 MPH AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. && .AVIATION... A DRYLINE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KLBB AND EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR KCDS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH SPATIALLY TO WARRANT PREVAILING OR TEMPO TSRA AT EITHER SITE...BUT INCLUDED VCTS AND CB AROUND THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR STORMS TO BE ONGOING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAKING ON MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ANOTHER PUSH SOUTH. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013/ SHORT TERM... OUR NEW DUAL-POLARIZATION RADAR WILL LIKELY SAMPLE ITS FIRST THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AS A RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. AT 08Z...THE BASE OF THIS WAVE WAS CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING WESTERN AZ COMPLETE WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX/CURL NEAR THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AFTER CRESTING SHALLOW UPPER RIDGING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...THIS WAVE IS TIMED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA NEAR PEAK HEATING. WITH FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ASCENT PRACTICALLY GUARANTEED...ATTENTION WILL BE FOCUSED ON A DIFFUSE DRYLINE MIXING OUT OF NM AND A WAVY EAST-WEST STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY NORTH OF I-40 IN THE TX PANHANDLE. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS MORNING COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...BUT FOCUS TODAY IS ON STORM CHANCES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MAY ACTUALLY TAKE A BACKSEAT TO THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE BY MIDDAY AS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPAND OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND PROMOTE DEEP MIXING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS AXIS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE OFTEN TENDS TO BE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED LIFT AND ULTIMATELY CI. NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...A PRONOUNCED EML APPEARS HIGHLY FORMIDABLE FOR STORM CHANCES...BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SOME MENTION AS CINH HERE IS PROGGED TO ERODE TO -10 TO -50 BY 00Z. A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE IN ORDER LATER TODAY CONSIDERING MLCAPE AROUND 1K J/KG...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AOA 35 KNOTS AND SUFFICIENT CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES PREVAILING FARTHER WEST. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS NEAR THE FRONT...TORNADIC THREAT WILL BE HINDERED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE S/W TROUGH SPELLS POPS ENDING FROM WEST-EAST TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SURFACE FRONT EDGING SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS WEAKENING FRONT IN THE AREA THROUGH SAT MORNING...SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH OF ANY DISRUPTION TO OUR RECENT RUN OF MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. LONG TERM... FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT STILL NOT BE ABLE TO FULLY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. SETUP WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS IN FRONT AND DRYLINE POSITION WILL BE A BIT DIFFERENT. ALSO DIFFERENT IS THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ALOFT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY WHICH MAY FAVOR POP CHANCES FOR AFTER DARK. BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED BUT WILL HOLD OFF PLACING SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS UNTIL WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. A BIT BETTER FRONTAL PUSH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN CONTINUE TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. NOT TOO SURE HOW LONG PRECIP WILL LAST HOWEVER MODELS DO KEEP INCREASED BOUNDARY MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR LIGHT DRIZZLE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MAY RESULT IN A PRETTY GOOD CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DEPENDING ON TIMING AND CLOUD COVER. STRONGER FRONT WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AS WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPS TO PULL DRIER AIR OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. ROLLING PLAINS SEES SOME MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE SO HELD ON TO TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY MORNING AND THEN EXPAND IT AREAWIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN VALUES. THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 50S WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS CLIMBS INTO THE LOW 70S. COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG TROF PUSHES TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE WAVE WITH THE GFS NOW TRACKING THE WAVE ACROSS THE BIG BEND WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CMC MUDDLES THINGS EVEN FURTHER WITH A VERY WEAK TROF MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. ONLY THING THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH IS INCREASING POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM PRECIPITATION MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN RATHER THAN A GULF MOISTURE FEED INTO THE AREA. DID UP POPS FOR WEDNESDAY BUT KEPT THEM BELOW MENTION ONCE AGAIN UNTIL WE SEE HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WILL THEN UNFOLD FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH A RETURN OF A SLOSHING DRYLINE AND TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 76 50 78 45 68 / 20 10 10 10 10 TULIA 75 51 79 49 71 / 20 20 10 20 10 PLAINVIEW 77 51 81 50 71 / 20 20 10 20 10 LEVELLAND 81 52 84 49 72 / 20 10 10 10 10 LUBBOCK 81 54 85 50 72 / 20 20 10 10 10 DENVER CITY 81 54 85 51 76 / 20 10 10 10 10 BROWNFIELD 82 55 85 51 74 / 20 10 10 10 10 CHILDRESS 76 57 77 53 69 / 20 30 20 20 10 SPUR 79 55 84 54 74 / 20 30 20 20 10 ASPERMONT 79 58 83 55 76 / 20 30 20 20 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 31
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1141 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013 TXZ021>044-301645- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 1141 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CONVECTIVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. THE STRONGEST OF STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...MAINLY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 2 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:51 UTC.
7 hail, 1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
A contract weather observer at the Lubbock Preston Smith International Airport observed a funnel cloud just northeast of the terminal as a thunderstorm developed. It lasted three minutes before dissipating.
A citizen reported hen egg size hail east of Cedar Hill which broke the windshield of a car.
Penny size hail was reported west of 82nd Street and Milwaukee Avenue in Lubbock. No damage was observed.
A SKYWARN spotter observed golf ball size hail north of Crosbyton. No damage was reported.
An off-duty NWS employee observed penny size hail south of Wolfforth. No damage was reported.
Fire department officials reported golf ball size hail lasting for several minutes in Turkey. No damage was observed.
Fire department officials observed golf ball size hail. No damage was reported.
Law enforcement officials reported quarter size hail northeast of Post. No damage was observed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 432257, 432177, 432182, 432178, 432183, 432179, 432180, 432181.