Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, June 6, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1009 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE. AS PER OUR REGIONAL MORNING
SOUNDINGS...THE AIRMASS OVER SE TX FAIRLY UNSTABLE BUT THE EXPECT-
ED TRACKS OF THE VARIOUS SFC BOUNDARIES (OUTFLOWS AND WHATNOT) TO
KEEP THE HIGHEST THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER OUR NORTHERN
ZONES FROM LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHORTTERM
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH THIS PATTERN. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING INTO THE DFW/FTW AREA WITH OUTFLOW
STRETCHING OFF TO THE SW TO SEP/BBD AREA WITH MORE ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA FROM AROUND HENDERSON IN NETX TO LCH. WINDS ACROSS SETX
HAVE DECOUPLED AND HAS LED TO SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG AND PATCHY
MVFR CIGS. UPPER FLOW WILL BRING A S/W (ASSOCIATED WITH MCS NW OF
DFW) INTO SETX THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE AREA HAVE
BEEN CREEPING UP AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. SOUNDINGS
LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME GOING SEVERE. CAPE OF 1400-1800
INCREASING TO 2800-4400 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON/LI OF -6 TO -8/PW 1.5
TO 1.8". (THE HIGHER CAPES FROM LIVINGSTON TO HOUSTON TO
COLUMBUS.) SHEAR IS LOW AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY SO EXPECT THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN 10 AM AND 2
PM AND SAG SOUTH COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW TO REACH INTO HOUSTON
METROPLEX DURING THE 2 TO 7 PM WINDOW. IN ADDITION SEABREEZE
SHOULD MOVE INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A COLLISION WILL
PROBABLY LEAD TO LOCALIZED PULSE SEVERE/SLOW MOVEMENT VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT GENERALLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER
POPS TODAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH WITH
RAINFALL/CLOUD COVER. RAINS SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT
AND SHIFT SOUTH AS DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH. FRONT STALLS OUT ALONG
THE COAST AND WAFFLES AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH. A SERIES OF S/W DO TRACK SE TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER DRAMATICALLY ON TIMING AND THE
TRACK OF THE S/W SO CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOW FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MAINLY A SOUTHERN CWA IMPACT. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THE TRAILING UPPER WEAKNESS DRIFTS OVERHEAD THEN UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD WITH SUBSIDENCE. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
BEYOND TUESDAY BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO
TAKE SHAPE TO THE WEST AND THEN SHIFT EAST OVER TEXAS. THIS SHOULD
SPELL AN END TO ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THREAT AND START TO PUMP
UP THE TEMPERATURES. WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED TO SEE UPPER 90S BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  69  88  67  91 /  40  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  71  90  71  91 /  50  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  76  87  76  87 /  20  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
336 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-
070845-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
336 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO
COLDSPRING LINE. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS SOME WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. IN ADDITION THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP FROM AROUND COLUMBUS TO CONROE
TO LIBERTY. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MOVE INLAND FROM THE COASTAL
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COLLIDING WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COULD FOCUS RAINS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE HAIL THOUGH
GUSTY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS HEAVY RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA
MENTIONED ABOVE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 10 AM AND 8 PM.