Drought in Texas, July 1, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1219 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT PICKING UP TO ABOUT 8 TO 10 KNOTS
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY MID MORNING. TRANSIENT SCT/BKN
MVFR AT AROUND 2500 FT IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE IN THE BKS/HBV AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TOMORROW GENERATING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION BY AROUND 15 TO
17Z BUT PROBABILITY AT AIRFIELDS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THE
MOMENT. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS REMAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDS REPORTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BEING
ESTABLISHED LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
TEXAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR KLRD TO KAPY. PROBABILITY
IS LOW TO MENTION BUT WILL CONTINUE TO METWATCH. /55/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH TEMPS
ELSEWHERE CONSIDERABLY COOLER COMPARED TO THE RECORD HEAT YESTERDAY.
SOME STRONGER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WHERE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING BUT OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING POPS TO NEAR 20 PERCENT TONIGHT. WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT BEFORE SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST MON
NIGHT. CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY AS WELL AS ANY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF TO THE RECENT RECORD HEAT. /61/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT SHOULD VACILLATE SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TUESDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ODDS OF SEEING SOME MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL TO DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO MID-WEEK...AS DRIER AIR WORKS
ITS WAY SOUTHWARD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.

OVERALL...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN HEADING INTO MID-WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN SUCH THAT RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE SEEN OVER THE WEST...WITH
MUCH OF THE TROUGHINESS STAYING TO OUR EAST.  WITH DRY AIR EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS OUR REGION...I EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES /FOR
EARLY SUMMER/.

THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE A BIT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD RETROGRADE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  A BROAD EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WILL SHOULD START
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STEADILY EXPECTED TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.  IN FACT...CLOSER TO THE COAST...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAY WILL LIKELY REACH THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY...
AND MAY APPROACH 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE HERALDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE.  THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF SEEING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEKEND.  RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
GREATEST ODDS SEEING RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH
DIMINISHING PROBABILITIES HEADING WESTWARD.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
OF TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THE MOISTURE AND FORCING...I
WILL TREND ONGOING FORECAST VALUES TOWARD GUIDANCE WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.  /53/

MARINE...

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH EAST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH
THE COASTAL BEND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAK WITH
THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. /61/

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE
EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GRADUAL RETURN TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE GULF AND LAGUNA BY FRIDAY...WITH
INCREASED ODDS OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS AND BUILDING SEAS.  /53/

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/54

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1130 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013

TXZ248>257-011100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1130 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVATIONS OF STRONG WINDS OR WIND
DAMAGE TODAY TO LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-011100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1130 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

MARINERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVATIONS OF STRONG WINDS OR WIND
DAMAGE TODAY TO THE UNITED STATES COAST GUARD OR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

CASTILLO