Drought in Texas, August 6 to 31, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1234 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SE WINDS ARE LOWERING RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMFE WHICH STILL
IS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS. FROM KMFE WESTWARD...THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BUT
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. THE SE WINDS WILL RESTRENGTHEN EARLY TOMORROW AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ALONG WEST TEXAS. AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST AND SAND WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED AND
THE ADDITION OF AFRICAN SAHARAN DUST MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE VISIBILITY IMPACTS WITH THE
EXCEPTION IN THE VICINITY OF KPIL. HOWEVER...SLANTWISE
VISIBILITIES MAY BE A FACTOR ON APPROACHES TO LOCAL AIR TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MAIN AVIATION IMPACT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE WIND.
FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT SETTING UP TO PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS. LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT WITH WINDS BETWEEN
30 AND 40 KNOTS AT 2000 TO 4000 FEET. SOME OF THOSE WINDS TO
PARTIALLY MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE STRONG WINDS TO PERSIST FROM 15Z TO AROUND
03Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH VERY DRY
AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AN HOUR OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE BUT COVERAGE OF THE BKN CONDITIONS WILL
BE SMALL WITH ONLY TEMPO CONDITIONS AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS
LASTING LESS THEN AN HOUR. ONE OTHER IMPACT OF CONCERN WILL BE
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND DUE TO THE STRONG LOCAL WINDS AND
SOME AFRICAN SAHARAN DUST WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE VISIBILITY IMPACTS WITH
EXPECTION IN THE VICINITY OF KPIL HOWEVER...SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES
MAY BE A FACTOR ON APPROACHES TO LOCAL AIR TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HOT...DRY...AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. 594DM HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER TEXAS WITH MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. PWAT ON THE KBRO RAOB THIS
MORNING WAS 1.79 INCHES WHICH IS THE HIGHEST IT WILL BE THIS
PERIOD...PROGGED TO FALL TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD TONIGHT
.WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS STARR/JIM
HOGG/ZAPATA COUNTIES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP AREA WIDE TUESDAY
AROUND MID MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS
IN THE MID 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 100S ACROSS THE UPPER
VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND HEAT INDICES IN THE 104 TO 110 RANGE...THE
HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...500 MB RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
MAINTAIN A VERY HOT AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A PRETTY PRONOUNCED
500 MB TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE CUBA/HISPANOLA AREA WITH BOTH OF
THE MODELS MOVING THIS FEATURE STEADILY WEST AROUND THE BASE OF
THE RIDGE PUSHING INTO DEEP SOUTH TX THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME
DECENT MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE WHICH COULD PROVIDE DEEP
SOUTH TX AND PORTIONS OF MEXICO WITH A DECENT SHOT AT SOME
CONVECTION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER COMING IN DRIER
VERSUS THE ECMWF YESTERDAY...THE GFS IS NOW A LITTLE BIT WETTER
FOR SAT/SUN THAN THE ECMWF. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TWO
MODEL POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP OVERALL POPS
IN THE 20 TO 30% RANGE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE
TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPCOMING TROUGH. ALSO BOTH THE
MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE FEATURE WITH THIS
MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THE LATEST HPC/NHC GRAPHICS ALSO REFLECT THIS
GENERAL TREND SHOWING ONLY AN OPEN SURFACE WAVE MOVING OVER THE
REGION SAT AND SUN WITH NO CLOSED SURFACE LOW ANTICIPATED.

FOR TEMPS...THE GFS MEX MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO UNDERESTIMATE
THE HIGH TEMPS FOR THE CURRENT RIDGING PATTERN AND THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE DOING A BETTER JOB HERE. SO WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF
HIGHS THROUGH FRI. AS THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ERODES
THE RIDGING AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE EXPECT THE
HIGH TEMPS TO DROP A BIT FROM SAT THROUGH MON. ON AND AFTER SAT WILL
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MAXES. THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SHOW PRETTY SIMILAR VALUES FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WILL
STICK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND HERE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING REMAINS
ABOVE AVERAGE SINCE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING PRETTY GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS. ALSO BOTH MODEL SETS ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE EXPECTED TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS
INCREASING THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WEST TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THE THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN IN THE DAYTIME HOURS CAUSING THE WINDS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE ADVISORIES ON TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS 0-60NM AS
WINDS WILL JUST BE BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH AXIS
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THE PGF OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR THE
SURFACE WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH NO STRONG SCA CONDITIONS INDICATED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
404 AM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

TXZ248>257-060915-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
404 AM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES OF 103 TO 108 DEGREES IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HEAT INDICES OF 102 TO 108 DEGREES IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS OF THE PERIOD.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AT THE BEACHES OF
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-060915-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
404 AM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IS POSSIBLE FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.