Tornadoes and Hail in Oklahoma, March 30 to 31, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/
TIMING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTH ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MO AND COULD IMPACT THE FYV/XNA AREAS
LATER THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT AS CERTAIN...ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ACTIVITY DRIFTS SOUTH/
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY.

THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY LOOKS SLOWER
AND NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS LOOKING AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AS
A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPERATURES
TO WARM MONDAY...EVEN IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ANY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE POST FRONTAL IN NATURE SO WILL ONLY CARRY LOW POPS
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE NOW CONVERGING TOWARDS THE SOLUTION THAT THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN ADVERTISING WITH A CLOSED LOW NOW FORECAST TO TRACK OVER
OR NEAR THE AREA BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CLOUDY...DAMP
AND CHILLY PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
MOVES BY...A QUICK WARMUP TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY BEYOND.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BY THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY KICK-START THE
SPRING SEVERE WEATHER SEASON.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF MONDAY...WITH FRONTAL TIMING BEING KEY
TO THE HIGHS THAT DAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
456 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
456 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...EVENING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
AMPLE SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS HAS RESULTED IN
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AS OF LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO RECOVER INTO
THE EVENING...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF A CAP IN PLACE SUGGESTS STORM FORMATION IS POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE SURFACE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. A CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BACKBUILD ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AS WELL BY EARLY OR MID EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
RISK WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

CONSIDERABLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES IN
THAT TIME FRAME. ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO REBOUND TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
713 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

OKZ054-060-061-310045-
OSAGE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-
713 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS AND CENTRAL TULSA

AT 713 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER TULSA...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...TULSA...CATOOSA...VERDIGRIS...OWASSO AND SPERRY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3630 9565 3616 9570 3616 9576 3615 9576
      3620 9604 3635 9598
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 282DEG 21KT 3624 9590