Damaging Wind in North Dakota, August 18, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE GONE UP ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR ROSEAU TO EAST OF DEVILS
LAKE. CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED UNDER THE CAP AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
IS STILL OUT ALONG THE MT BORDER AND SFC CONVERGENCE HAS NOT BEEN
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD OR SUSTAINED CONVECTION. THAT BEING
SAID...THERE HAS BEEN SOME ACTIVITY BUILDING BACK AROUND BAUDETTE
AND SOME NEW CELLS GOING UP SOUTH OF HALLOCK. WILL KEEP AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION GOING FOR ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING WITH BETTER COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT AS THERE SHOULD BE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT BY THAT POINT.
WITH THE MOISTURE POOLING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA AND SOME GOOD
INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY ACTIVITY BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013

THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAIN CONVECTION AND IF/WHEN WILL CAP BREAK.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND ONCE AGAIN PREFER THE
SLIGHTLY LESS BULLISH GFS...ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS DEVELOP SOME SORT
OF CONVECTION AFTER 00Z AND PERHAPS BEFORE IN NW MN.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH THE BEST THREAT IN NW MN INTO SE ND ALONG THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND
THE MAIN THREATS. CAP MAY HOLD FOR QUITE A WHILE THOUGH AND SHOULD
LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT.

ON MONDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH MOST AREAS APPROACHING
90. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COOL THOUGH IN RECENT DAYS...BUT 850 MB
TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM SO IT WILL BE NEAR 90.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013

ON TUE...EXPECT A HOT DAY WITH ALL AREAS FROM 90-95. IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AS WELL WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE POOLING IN THE SOUTH WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...SO SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE MAINLY
TUE NIGHT IN THE SOUTH. TEMPS WED WILL COOL BUT SHOULD STILL BE
AROUND 80 NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER IN THE SOUTH THROUGH WED
MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS RAIN FREE BY WED AFTERNOON.

FOR WED NIGHT THRU SUNDAY DO NOT SEE ANY REALLY GOOD CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PCPN. THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE. THERE COULD BE POSSIBLE SHORT WAVES RIDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WHICH COULD BRING SOME
CHANCES FOR PCPN. FIRST OF ALL LOTS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THU/FRI
WITH THE GFS/GEM LOOKING DRY AND THE 00Z ECMWF WET. THIS HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THESE MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. THE NEW 12Z EC IS
FINALLY LOOKING CLOSER NOW TO THE DRIER GFS/GEM SOLUTION. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH ADJACENT OFFICES WILL GO DRY FOR THU/FRI. BEYOND
THAT WILL STICK WITH GUIDANCE LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ATTM. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013

SOME CONVECTION GOING UP ALONG A BOUNDARY BETWEEN KDVL AND
KGFK...BUT NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF SITES AT THIS
POINT SO WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA AND THEN BEGIN TO WASH OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AN VARIABLE. WINDS WILL PICK
UP AGAIN OUT OF A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BY MID DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
708 AM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-191215-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
708 AM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE MAKE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE UNCERTAIN. ANY STORMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE AREA LIKELY TO MISS ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
238 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013

MNZ006-182030-
LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-
238 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 236 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM 22 MILES EAST OF WARROAD...OR 42 MILES EAST OF ROSEAU...
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORM.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
GRACETON AROUND 250 PM CDT.
PITT AROUND 300 PM CDT.
BAUDETTE AROUND 310 PM CDT.
CLEMENTSON AROUND 320 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4855 9444 4867 9480 4886 9508 4909 9489
      4911 9477 4877 9469 4871 9456 4870 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 299DEG 31KT 4896 9483

DK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
720 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013

NDZ007-008-190115-
CAVALIER ND-PEMBINA ND-
720 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PEMBINA AND
NORTHEASTERN CAVALIER COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 716 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES NORTH OF LANGDON...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
VANG AROUND 740 PM CDT.
OLGA AROUND 755 PM CDT.
WALHALLA AROUND 800 PM CDT.
CONCRETE AROUND 805 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4900 9827 4901 9772 4898 9753 4868 9793
      4890 9850 4901 9842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 291DEG 22KT 4900 9826

JR