A persistent area of training thunderstorms over south-central Lincoln County produced heavy rainfall over the Little Bear burn scar. The first round of heavy rainfall dumped around 1 inch of rainfall in the area from the White burn scar west across Ruidoso to the Little Bear burn scar.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A persistent area of training thunderstorms over south-central Lincoln County produced heavy rainfall over the Little Bear burn scar. The first round of heavy rainfall dumped around 1 inch of rainfall in the area from the White burn scar west across Ruidoso to the Little Bear burn scar. A Forest Service road west of Bonito Lake was reported to have a flash flooded with significant amounts of water and rocks.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 10:47 AM MST, 43 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1147 AM MDT THU AUG 1 2013 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VSBYS BENEATH STORM CORES AND SMALL HAIL. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTH BTWN 10 AND 15 KTS. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF KGUP WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ALLOW FOR A POTENTIAL AREA OF RAIN TO IMPACT THE NW PLATEAU WITH CIGS NEAR 030 MOST OF THE NIGHT. GUYER && .PREV DISCUSSION...627 AM MDT THU AUG 1 2013... QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE MAKING INROADS IN A HURRY THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS COMBINING WITH MODERATE TO STRONG ATMOSPHERIC STRETCHING/DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG ELY WAVE OVER SW NM/SE AZ TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE LACK OF SURFACE HEATING. LIKELY HAVE A LULL LATE MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET THINGS GOING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. 33 .PREV DISCUSSION...251 AM MDT THU AUG 1 2013... A VERY ACTIVE DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY. EASTERLY WAVE BEGINNING TO MAKE THE TURN NORTHWARD AS IT ENTERS FAR SERN AZ EARLY THIS MORNING. SECONDARY...WEAKER WAVE ALSO NOTED ON RADAR CENTERED OVER THE SRN GILA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...LIFTING THE STRONGER FEATURE NORTHWARD THROUGH ERN AZ THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST DEFORMATION/ATMOSPHERIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE EXPECTED FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WWD TO THE AZ BORDER WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL DEVELOP THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 15-20KTS OF STEERING FLOW...HOWEVER...WILL KEEP STORMS MOVING NORTHWARD NICELY SO WILL HOLD OFF ON FFW AT THIS TIME. WITH PWATS RANGING BTWN 1-1.30 INCH...STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED STORM TRAINING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FROM THE GILA/SW MTNS NORTH TO THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS. BEST CHANCES FOR EVENING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NEAR I-25 WWD AS THE ELY WAVE GRADUALLY LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NWRN NM. SCT CONVECTION LIKELY TO GO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE WAVE SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRANSLATES SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE NRN MOUNTAINS. NAM12 SUGGESTING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE ELY WAVE WILL CREATE A RATHER DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL AND WITH SCATTERED LEFT OVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY...SUSPECT FRIDAY WILL BE MARKEDLY LESS ACTIVE. CLASSIC SOUTHERLY MONSOON FLOW SETS UP FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS INDICATING THAT SOME DRIER AIR FROM NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER WEST TX ATTEMPTS TO PUSH IN FROM THE E/SE. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH...KEEPING THE DRIER AIR OVER FAR SERN NM. AT ANY RATE...EVERY DAY IS A NEW DAY WITH THIS TYPE OF FLOW GIVEN POSSIBLE WIGGLES IN THE SLY FLOW OR MCVS SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCT MTN AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH DAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN RATHER REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER REGARDING NEXT WEEK. CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HINTS THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACNW COAST. THIS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EWD TRANSLATION WOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP SOUTHERLY MONSOON PULSES TO PUSH UP INTO THE STATE. 33 .FIRE WEATHER... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN A WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. RIDGE CORE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND STRENGTHENING YET AGAIN OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. CORE WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH CENTROID REMAINING EAST OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. FOR TODAY...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON TAP WITH WETTING RAINS FAVORING NORTH AND WEST TODAY...AS RIDGE CORE REMAINS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND MOISTURE STREAM AROUND THE WESTERN MARGINS OF THE RIDGE PENETRATES NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER WILL SUPPORT SOME SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES REMAIN IN THE 30S PCT OVER MOST OF THE STATE. GOOD VENTILATION CONDITIONS OR BETTER TODAY WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY AUGUST. FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE FLATTENING WITH ROUGH CENTROID BEGINNING SLOW EASTWARD SHIFT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SHIFT WILL HELP REFOCUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES REDUCED IN THE EAST. BEST WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY INCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AND GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST...WITH 30S PCT COMMON OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES CREEPING ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SUNNIER EAST...REMAINING NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW OVER THE CLOUDIER AND RAINIER WEST. VENTILATION DROPPING BACK TOWARD FAIR NORTH AND WEST...REMAINING GOOD OR BETTER IN THE EAST. GOOD OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. FOR SATURDAY...RIDGE CORE SHIFTING TO EAST CENTRAL TEXAS ALLOWING SLIGHT EASTWARD NUDGE OF THUNDERSTORM FOCUS...WITH FAVORED AREAS REMAINING THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN HIGH COUNTRY...THE WEST...AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STORMS MAY FIRE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY THEN SEEN ON FRIDAY. BEST WETTING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN HIGH COUNTRY. SURFACE LOW OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HELP SUPPORT QUICK FRONTAL INTRUSION OUT THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALSO HELP EXPAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGES AND INTENSITIES IN THE NORTHEAST AND PROLONG STORMS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES RETURNING TO THE 30S PCT FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN PLAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WHERE 20S PCT WILL BE MORE TYPICAL. VENTILATION FAIR OR BETTER FOR MOST SPOTS IN THE WEST...REMAINING GOOD OR BETTER IN THE EAST. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE CORE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINING PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SURFACE LOW PARKED OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A SOMEWHAT INTERRUPTED NORTHBOUND MOISTURE PUSH OUT OF WESTERN CHIHUAHUA AND EASTERN SONORA WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING PRETTY MUCH STATEWIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH RECYCLING OF IN PLACE MOISTURE TO PROVIDE GOOD SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. STEADY TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY TRENDS WITH MODEST WIND SPEEDS BECOMING SHIFTING AND GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MARGINAL VENTILATION IN THE WEST...BUT CONTINUING GOOD OR BETTER IN THE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SHY && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 702 AM MDT THU AUG 1 2013 NMZ501>540-021315- NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS- NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS- WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS- SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS- WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER- SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET- EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY- LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA- LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY- CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA- FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY- HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY- QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY- CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY- 702 AM MDT THU AUG 1 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CREATE HIGH RUNOFF POTENTIAL AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR RECENTLY BURNED AREAS. FAVORED AREAS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA BORDER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TRENDING UPWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS... WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 33
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 54 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:31 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Fast flowing water and rocks over Forest Service Road 107 beneath Washington canyon to the west of Bonito Lake.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 457447.