Damaging Winds in Nevada, June 29, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
420 PM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...RECORD BREAKING HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RADAR OUTAGE PREVENTS EXACT
PICTURE OF CURRENT CONVECTION...BUT SURROUNDING RADARS GIVING A
DECENT DEPICTION. SATELLITE CONFIRMS THAT SPOTTY CONVECTIVE TOWERS
ARE FORMING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
EMPHASIS ON NORTHEAST NEVADA. MOISTURE IS ADEQUATE WITH PW'S OVER
0.5" AND AS HIGH AS 0.65". SURFACE THETA E...WHICH ADMITTEDLY IS NOT
EXACTLY APPLICABLE WITH LCL'S AS HIGH AS 19K FEET...SHOWS A CORE OF
HIGH VALUES OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH LOWER VALUES OVER EASTERN
NEVADA AND HUMBOLDT WHERE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER.
STILL...THE SFC THETA E IS A REFLECTION OF MINOR INSTABILITY ALOFT.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR ALL
ZONES EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN ELKO AND THE RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL IN
THOSE LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S NOT UNCOMMON
EVEN ABOVE 7000 FEET.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL RETROGRESS WEST TO OVER THE ELKO
MICROPOLITAN AREA BY MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SUPPRESSION...IT'S JUST SO
DARN HOT THAT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WILL LIKELY CAUSE CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SINCE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. SOME
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH DRY LIGHTNING WILL SLOW
CONSIDERABLY AFTER POST SUNSET COOLING.

FORTUNATELY...IT WILL COOL OFF AT NIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMAL MINS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DO NOT AGREE VERY WELL ON THE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM. ON THE
ECMWF...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN A BIT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...STARTING OUT AT 596 DM MONDAY NIGHT AND ENDING UP NEAR 590
DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY OVER THE
SILVER STATE. THE GFS INSTEAD BRINGS A TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THAT SHUNTS THE RIDGE WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY...ALMOST BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO, IN FACT.
THEREFORE...THE LONG TERM CERTAINLY HAS A DIMINISHING AMOUNT OF
CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...TENDED TO LEAN A BIT MORE ON THE ECMWF AND
PUSHED TEMPERATURES UPWARD MORE THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME WE WENT.
WHAT THE GFS AND ECMWF DO SEEM TO AGREE ON IS THAT PW'S...WHICH
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION IN THE 0.4-0.7 RANGE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM...WILL GENERALLY RISE AS FLOW SHIFTS A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY AND MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY AROUND THE RIDGE AND BACK
NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MEANS THAT THE PROBABILITY OF
CONVECTION...WHICH MAY END UP WET IN SOME AREAS LATER IN THE
PERIOD...APPEARS TO GO UP THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME WE GO. THUS
TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. RCM

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN
CONCERN IS ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD FORM NEAR KELY...THEY
REMAIN UNLIKELY AT THE OTHER TERMINALS AND SO FAR TODAY THEY'VE
AVOIDED KELY AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED HOT AND DRY. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN
AREAS WILL BE EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.

&&

98/93/93/98

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
352 PM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 ESE BATTLE MOUNTAIN   40.61N 116.83W
06/28/2013  M62.00 MPH       LANDER             NV   MESONET

            WIND GUST TO 62 MPH FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
            BOUNDARY.

&&

JRM