An upper level disturbance moved east-northeast into northwest Missouri. A strong cap was observed across the area, so only a couple of severe thunderstorms were able to initiate during the late evening hours of May 18, 2013.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
An upper level disturbance moved east-northeast into northwest Missouri. A strong cap was observed across the area, so only a couple of severe thunderstorms were able to initiate during the late evening hours of May 18, 2013. The thunderstorms were able to generate some 60 mph wind gusts, in Buchanan and Holt Counties as they dissipated.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 18, 11:05 PM CST, 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1205 AM CDT Sun May 19 2013 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 326 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 Deepening upper trough over the High Plains is expected to produce multiple rounds of severe weather across the Plains and Midwest over the next few days, starting with a severe weather outbreak over western and central Kansas this evening. Upper shortwave responsible for this activity, currently near Dodge City, will track into eastern KS and western MO late tonight. Quite a few questions remain regarding this feature and if it will be able to spark convection overnight this far east, especially with a significant capping inversion in place. Latest aircraft soundings out of MCI depict a very strong inversion of 16 degrees C around 770 hPa which is quite a bit stronger than what models had been forecasting. This inversion is likely to keep our area dry at least through the early evening. However, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is progged to nose into northwest MO between 06Z and 09Z. Convergence at the leading edge of this feature could produce enough lift to weaken and possibly overcome the cap and spark a complex of thunderstorms over northeast KS and northwest MO overnight. Models are in very poor agreement with this potential overnight activity so confidence is not high. However, should storms develop, elevated instability is forecast to be strong to extreme, so these storms could produce severe hail and very heavy rainfall. Sunday still appears active as the upper trough to the west pushes into the eastern Plains. Model spread remains rather high with the middle- and lower-level jet structure and timing of smaller-scale features, which makes it somewhat difficult to pinpoint exact storm location, timing and severity. Further complicating matters will be any overnight convection that lingers into Sunday morning. This could cut back on instability Sunday afternoon, and is also producing feedback issues in the model forecasts. It still appears that if things were to come together correctly, parts of eastern Kansas and western Missouri could see a line of supercells capable of producing very large hail (baseball-size or larger), damaging winds and tornadoes. Exact tornado threat, and any potential for long-lived strong tornadoes, will depend on the evolution of low-level wind fields and low-level instability which are difficult to get a feel for given the model spread. Taking a blend of the faster NAM and slower GFS would put result in wind fields and thermal profiles supportive of an enhanced tornado risk along the KS/MO border late Sunday afternoon and early evening, with an even greater risk further south toward Tulsa. Boundary-parallel storm-relative flow is likely to cause any supercells to gradually congeal into a line over western Missouri Sunday evening, maintaining the potential for large hail and damaging winds. This activity could maintain its severity as far east as central Missouri Sunday night. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 326 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 Large question marks remain for the convective forecast on Monday, given substantial uncertainties on the evolution of thunderstorm activity Sunday afternoon and night. As mentioned in previous discussion, there will likely be some lingering thunderstorm activity early Monday morning as an embedded shortwave rotates northeast of the area and the LLJ slowly veers, however it's possible that much of the morning and early afternoon hours will be dry as the area is between shortwaves. Moderate to strong instability will begin to grow ahead of an elongated surface boundary over east central Kansas and northwestern Missouri during the afternoon hours. By the mid-late afternoon hours a secondary shortwave and mid-level jet streak will rotate into the area, reigniting convection over NE OK, SE KS and into areas of west central MO. Initially discrete in nature, fairly rapid transition towards a linear convective mode is anticipated further NE given unidirectional shear. Substantial mid-level CAPE values will support very large hail, with dry air intrusion indicating the potential for a quick transition to a strong wind producing MCS as this system moves across the area. Tuesday-Saturday: Upper level troughing will swing through the Midwest by Tuesday bringing cooler temperatures and dry conditions into Thursday. A building mid-level ridge will gradually slide eastward by the end of the week and next weekend. Moisture will gradually return to the Western Plains bringing renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms to portion of Kansas by next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 627 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 A strong line of thunderstorms is evident on radar moving across northeastern Kansas. These storms are expected to move through the terminals between 06Z-07Z and may pact winds of 30-40kts with them. Cigs will drop to MVFR conds with vsbys reduced to 4SM in storms. After this line moves through, stratiform thunderstorms are expected to persist through 10Z with low end VFR conds. VFR conds are expected to continue through the daylight hours with a bkn-ovc deck between 3-4kft. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern Kansas late tomorrow afternoon and then move eastward into the terminals around 01Z this evening. Winds will be out of the south through the early morning hours between 10-15kts but will pick up to near 15-20kts with gusts to 20-30kts during the day tomorrow. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel LONG TERM...Dux AVIATION...73
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 637 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-191200- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS- ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER- HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON- CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON- RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS- COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 637 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WITH THE HAZARDS TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH AND EAST OF LINE FROM ST. JOSEPH TO BETHANY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY. MELL
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
KSZ025-102-103-MOZ011-020-028-190530-
ATCHISON KS-BUCHANAN MO-DONIPHAN KS-HOLT MO-LEAVENWORTH KS-PLATTE MO-
1151 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PLATTE...SOUTHERN
HOLT...WESTERN BUCHANAN...DONIPHAN...ATCHISON AND NORTHWESTERN
LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...
AT 1146 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WOODLAWN TO
MAYETTA...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.
LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
HIGHLAND...ATCHISON...TROY...WATHENA...WESTON...MUSCOTAH...
EFFINGHAM...LANCASTER...DENTON...WHITE CLOUD...EASTON...FOREST
CITY...OREGON...RUSHVILLE...ARRINGTON...HURON...FARMINGTON...
LEONA...CUMMINGS AND SEVERANCE.
THIS WILL IMPACT
I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 23 AND 77.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.
TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.
LAT...LON 3965 9557 3966 9534 4000 9534 4001 9532
4000 9531 4002 9534 4009 9505 4007 9506
4005 9503 3994 9499 3992 9500 3990 9499
3990 9497 3942 9479 3933 9518 3941 9519
3942 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0450Z 253DEG 47KT 3982 9576 3931 9565
CDBSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1220 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
KSZ102-MOZ001-002-011-012-020-190600-
ANDREW MO-ATCHISON MO-BUCHANAN MO-DONIPHAN KS-HOLT MO-NODAWAY MO-
1220 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ATCHISON...WESTERN ANDREW...
WESTERN NODAWAY...HOLT...NORTHERN BUCHANAN AND DONIPHAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 100 AM CDT...
AT 1217 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ROCKPORT TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRAIG TO ROBINSON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.
LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
HIGHLAND...TROY...MOUND CITY...TARKIO...WATHENA...COUNTRY CLUB
VILLA...SAVANNAH...MARYVILLE...ROCKPORT...WHITE CLOUD...CRAIG...
FAIRFAX...FOREST CITY...OREGON...MAITLAND...AMAZONIA...SKIDMORE...
FILLMORE...BURLINGTON JUNCTION AND CORNING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 49 AND 114.
I-229 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 7 AND 14.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.
TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.
LAT...LON 4058 9493 4044 9484 3980 9472 3968 9534
4000 9534 4001 9532 4000 9531 4003 9535
4002 9539 4004 9542 4012 9540 4019 9549
4024 9548 4025 9555 4029 9556 4030 9564
4033 9565 4034 9563 4042 9566 4059 9536
TIME...MOT...LOC 0520Z 233DEG 50KT 4037 9555 4013 9539
3982 9529
CDBThe Topeka radar (KTWX), 141 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:31 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm wind gusts were estimated up to 60 mph, with windows blown out of a residence.
A thunderstorm wind gust was measured at 60 mph, at the St. Joseph Airport.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 452361, 452360.