Heavy Snow and Winter Weather in Michigan, February 2, 2013

Name: Heavy Snow and Winter Weather in Michigan, February 2, 2013
Start: 2013-02-02T01:00
End: 2013-02-02T18:00
Location: Michigan

February 2, 2013 · NWS IWX · 5 events in 5 counties and zones

An Alberta Clipper dropped between 2 and 4 inches of accumulating snow on the region, with heavier amounts in excess of 6 inches near the Lake Michigan shoreline in southwest Lower Michigan.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.

An Alberta Clipper dropped between 2 and 4 inches of accumulating snow on the region, with heavier amounts in excess of 6 inches near the Lake Michigan shoreline in southwest Lower Michigan.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 1, 11:15 PM EST, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 1, 11:15 PM EST, 1 hour 45 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1115 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

.UPDATE...
SIG UPDATE WRT RAPID INCRS UPSTREAM PER RAPID EASE OF TOP/DOWN
SATURATION PROCESS GIVEN SUCH COLD THERMAL PROFILES. SUPERIOR WAA/
VEERING HODO WITH NRN TERMINUS OF LLJ 45KTS IMPINGING 925MB MSTR
POOL OF 2-2.4 G/KG AIR. IDEAL COLLOCATION OF FEATURES FOR MOST
DOMINANT MFLUX CONVERGENCE ALIGN ACRS SWRN/SRN CWA...THOUGH CONCEDE
SLIGHT LK INFLUENCE FOR SECONDARY MAXIMA ACRS SWRN MI. GIVEN XTRM
SLOPE OF ADVECTING BULK MSTR/MIXR WALL RELATIVE GIVEN THE COLD
AIRMASS...ALONG WITH WELL SATURATED DGZ...EVEN DOUBLE SATURATED LYRS
NOTED AT KFWA PER 00 NAM BUFKIT IN ADDITION TO THIN LYR OF THETA-E
DCRSG WITH HGHT IN 4-6KFT LYR TO AFFORD POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR
PSBL DVLPMENT OF MORE CONCERTED UVM STREETS BY ERLY AM...IN LINE
WITH AND FURTHERING CONFIDENCE IN HIR POPS/QPF FOR THIS UPDATE SPCLY
WITH THE BURGEONING BAROCLINIC LEAF IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM. HIGH/PSBLY
XTRM SNOW/WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS WITH EFFICIENT DENDRITIC PROCESSES
ALMOST ASSURED. QUICK TIMING ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR THAT SHOULD
QUELL FINAL TOTALS TO AOB 3 INCHES IN AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...AND
ELSEWHERE GENERAL 1.5-2.5 INCHES ANTICIPATED BY LATE SAT
MORNING...WITH LOWEST AMOUNTS ACRS FAR NERN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION... /00 UTC TAFS/
PRIMARY FOCUS ON LIGHT SNOW ONSET PER SRLY TRACKING CLIPPER SYSTEM
CRNTLY CENTERED NEAR SD/MN/IA BORDER TO PUSH INTO ERN IA AROUND 09
UTC. STRONG UPSLOPING LLVL WINDS INADVOF SYSTEM AND PRESENCE OF MID
LVL SHORTWAVE ENERGY /55-60KT JETLET/ SHOULD QUICKLY LEAD TO
TOP/DOWN SATURATION WITH ONSET MOVED FORWARD IN TIME PER LATEST
RAP/NAM EVAL. INITIALLY LIGHT PRECIP/MVFR MET CIGS AT ONSET SHOULD
QUICKLY GIVE WAY RAPID DETERIORATION WITH LARGE DENDRITIC FLAKE
FORMATION PREFERRED...WHICH SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE IN DROPPING VSBYS
INTO THE IFR RANGE AROUND DAYBREAK/EARLY AM HOURS /10-14 UTC AT KSBN
AND ABOUT AN HOUR LATER AT KFWA. SHEAR PROFILE RATHER MARGINAL
AS COUPLING BTWN SFC FLOW/2KFT AND ANTICIPATE ONLY 35-40KT 2KFT AGL
SWRLY FLOW...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN NEGATING NEED FOR LLWS
INCLUSION DURING PEAK OF SNOW EVENT. BY EARLY AFTN HAVE SEGUED
INTO OPTIMISM WITH ABOVE FUEL ALT CONDS BY 18 UTC KSBN/19 UTC KFWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2013/
SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

LAKE EFFECT FINALLY ENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY. AS A
RESULT WILL EXPIRE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING A BIT EARLY WITH THE
AFTN PACKAGE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARDS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE TOWARDS THE AREA
STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. FAVORABLE DEPTH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ
EXPECTED WITH DECENT LIFT AS THIS FEATURES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE/MEASURABLE PRECIP...BUT LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
SNOW AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE SATURATION OF MUCH OF THE COLUMN...PWATS
AT BEST APPROACH 0.30 INCHES WITH MIXING RATIOS 1 TO 2 G/KG WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. SYSTEM TRACK BECOMING SOMEWHAT CLEARER
WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACKING THE LOW FROM NE NEBRASKA 00Z SAT TO
NW IL 12Z SAT TO ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. BEST SURGE OF LIFT AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE WENT CAT POPS ALL AREAS LATER TONIGHT AND
SLOWED DOWN DEPARTURE OF SNOWFALL WITH AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW LINGERING
ON BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE AS FLOW BECOMES NW AGAIN AND SOME LAKE
CONTRIBUTION ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA. ACCUMS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS SW CLOSER TO BETTER (BUT STILL
LIMITED) MSTR. HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS NW AREAS DEPENDING ON EXACT ALIGNMENT OF BANDS/LAKE
RESPONSE/AVAILABLE MSTR.

YET ANOTHER CLIPPER DROPS IN SAT NGT TO BRING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA AGAIN. TRACK OF THIS MAY BE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE SYSTEM EVEN MORE ANEMIC WITH PWATS 0.2 INCHES OR LESS. WILL
MAINTAIN PREV GRIDS WITH DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...LOWS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH A INCREASE IN
OVERNIGHT READINGS AS CLOUD COVER AND MODEST WAA ARRIVE. NON DIURNAL
TREND PLACED IN HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT. WENT WITH ALLBLEND FOR HIGHS
ON SAT BUT STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE SAT NGT.

LONG TERM... /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE HAD A NORTHERN BIAS WITH THESE CLIPPERS
AND HAVE BEEN TRENDING SOUTH. THUS CONFIDENCE ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED ALLBLEND POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. PV
ANOMALY WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY WITH ANY LIGHT SYNOPTIC
SNOW ENDING AND CONFINED MAINLY TO EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH DELTA T VALUES INTO UPPER
TEENS. ACCUMS WILL LIKELY BE ON LIGHT SIDE WITH SHALLOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND LIMITED MOISTURE. FLOW WILL QUICKLY BACK AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORT WAVE LIMITING DURATION FOR EVENT AS WELL.

THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE CROSSES AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE BUT DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SOME THETA E
ADVECTION. CHANCE POPS CONTINUED FOR NOW WITH TRACK UNCERTAINTY.
LIKE A BROKEN RECORD YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TUE IN PROGRESSIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOR MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE THURSDAY. THIS WAVE PROGGED TO BE NORTH WITH WARMER 850MB
TEMPS NEAR 0C SO CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...MURPHY
UPDATE...MURPHY

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 1, 3:42 PM EST, 9 hours 18 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
342 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-022045-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
342 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2013 /242 PM CST FRI FEB 1 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW ZERO TO 20 BELOW
ZERO EARLY TODAY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH
BY DAYBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT
SNOWFALL REPORTS ARE WELCOME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-022045-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
342 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 1, 11:57 PM EST, 1 hour 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1157 PM EST FRI FEB 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     SNOW             2 ESE BENTON HARBOR     42.11N  86.42W
02/01/2013  M1.8 INCH        BERRIEN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOWFALL FROM MIDNIGHT TO 4 PM FRIDAY...SNOW DEPTH 5
            INCHES

&&

SKIPPER

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

4 winter weather, 1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Snow, Berrien

When: February 2, 1:00 AM EST to 6:00 PM EST
Where: Berrien forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter

Snow covered roads led to a few accidents and slide-offs across the region on February 2nd as light to moderate snow fell for much of the day. Total snow accumulations ranged between 3 and 6 inches across southeast Berrien County to between 6 and 12 inches elsewhere. There was a report of 11 inches of total snow accumulation in Benton Harbor. Interstate 94 was closed during the day from Coloma to Van Buren. There were no serious injuries or accidents reported.

Winter Weather, Cass

When: February 2, 2:00 AM EST to 5:00 PM EST
Where: Cass forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 41.915, -85.993 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Snow covered roads led to a few accidents and slide-offs across the region on February 2nd as light to moderate snow fell for much of the day. Total snow accumulations ranged between 3 and 6 inches.

Winter Weather, St. Joseph

When: February 2, 3:00 AM EST to 5:00 PM EST
Where: St. Joseph forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 41.914, -85.528 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Snow covered roads led to a few accidents and slide-offs across the region on February 2nd as light to moderate snow fell for much of the day. Total snow accumulations ranged between 2 and 5 inches.

Winter Weather, Branch

When: February 2, 3:00 AM EST to 5:00 PM EST
Where: Branch forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 41.916, -85.059 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Snow covered roads led to a few accidents and slide-offs across the region on February 2nd as light to moderate snow fell for much of the day. Total snow accumulations ranged between 2 and 4 inches.

Winter Weather, Hillsdale

When: February 2, 4:00 AM EST to 5:00 PM EST
Where: Hillsdale forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 41.888, -84.593 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Snow covered roads led to a few accidents and slide-offs across the region on February 2nd as light to moderate snow fell for much of the day. Total snow accumulations ranged between 2 and 4 inches.

What these are

Heavy Snow: Snowfall reaching the local warning threshold without the other hazards of a winter storm.
Winter Weather: Snow, sleet or freezing rain below warning levels that still caused disruption, damage or casualties.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Michigan in 2013 Every state in 2013 This day in weather history Warnings in Michigan, February 2013

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 422938, 422939, 422940, 422941, 422942.