Strong thunderstorms moving along the Tennessee border dumped heavy rain that lead to flash flooding in Whitley and Bell counties on September 3, 2013.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Strong thunderstorms moving along the Tennessee border dumped heavy rain that lead to flash flooding in Whitley and Bell counties on September 3, 2013.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 2, 11:19 PM EST, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1219 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013 LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN RELMS OF THE CWA. WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND MAIN LINE...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN A FEW MORE HOURS OF SCT AND ISOLATED POPS BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF HIGHER POPS. STILL EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO BE CLEAR OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. ALSO LOADED IN LATEST TEMPERATURE AND WIND OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE ONGOING FORECAST WAS MATCHING UP WELL WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. INCREASED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION 10-20 PERCENT BASED ON WHAT WAS SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR AND THE OUTPUT FROM THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL. ALSO HAVE THE PRECIPITATION ENDING TONIGHT AND NOT EXTEND INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM BUFR WAS SHOWING A DECREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED CAPPING STARTING TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD HELP THE LOW THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY 8 PM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013 ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING THE AREA AT MID AFTERNOON. THEY WERE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG A LINE FROM LOUISVILLE KY TO ZANESVILLE OH...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE FOLLOWED THE FORECAST OF THE HRRR MODEL THROUGH THIS EVENING... SHOWING THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SE...WITH A BIT OF A DROP OFF IN ACTIVITY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS IN OUR NW COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE THERE...AND USED POPS LOWER IN THE CHANCE RANGE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER SE. A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS COULD BE LINGERING NEAR THE VA BORDER ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LEAVES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN A DRIER AIR MASS...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FROM NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013 THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL START OFF AMPLIFIED WITH A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AND DEEP TROUGHING EXTENDED FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A GRADUAL DAMPENING TO TAKE PLACE IN GENERAL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW ADVANCES EAST ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WEAKENING BOTH FEATURES IN THE PROCESS. THE TROUGHING TO THE EAST WILL BE SLOWER TO PULL OUT UNTIL THE ROCKIES RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING PARKED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE CONGEALED OFF OF THE THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY THEN RETURN TO JUSTIFY HANGING ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TERRAIN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE 50S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PEAK DEW POINTS IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK TO HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SO NOT AS BALMY AS WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ACCUSTOMED TO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013 LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AND ALONG WITH THE FRONT. SOME TEMPO IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THE STORMS. SHOWERS WILL DIE OUT OVERNIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE BEFORE THE DRY AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ANOTHER VARIABLE IS HOW MUCH RAIN IS GOING TO FALL AS THE FRONT PASSES. THE MORE RAIN...THE GREATER THE CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME VFR. WILL BE STAYING WITH MVFR WITH THE PASSING SHOWERS AND NEAR DAWN WITH THE MIST. AFTER 13Z...IT SHOULD BE VFR FOR QUITE A WHILE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JJ
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 420 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-031100- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING... OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO... WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO... PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE... CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON... HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG... INEZ...PIKEVILLE 420 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE VIRGINIA DURING THE WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HAL
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1010 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013 KYZ110-120-030300- PIKE-FLOYD- 1010 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING... SOUTHWESTERN PIKE AND SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD. AT 1010 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MCDOWELL...OR 12 MILES WEST OF PIKEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...HI HAT AROUND 1015 PM EDT...CRAYNOR AROUND 1020 PM EDT...BEAVER AROUND 1025 PM EDT...GALVESTON AROUND 1030 PM EDT...MYRA AROUND 1040 PM EDT... RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. JACOBSON
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1016 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013 KYZ080-085>087-116-030245- WHITLEY-LAUREL-KNOX-BELL-CLAY- 1016 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING... KNOX... WHITLEY... BELL... SOUTHERN CLAY AND SOUTHERN LAUREL. AT 1017 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LIPPS TO HUXLEY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANCHESTER TO 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILLIAMSBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...ASHERS FORK AROUND 1025 PM EDT...JARVIS AROUND 1030 PM EDT...QUEENDALE AROUND 1035 PM EDT...GARDNER AROUND 1040 PM EDT...SCALF AROUND 1045 PM EDT... RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY. JACOBSON
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1125 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013 KYZ085>088-110-113-115-117-118-120-030400- WHITLEY-KNOTT-KNOX-LESLIE-LETCHER-PERRY-PIKE-BELL-FLOYD-HARLAN- 1125 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY MORNING... EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KNOTT... SOUTH CENTRAL KNOX... EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL LESLIE... LETCHER... EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PERRY... EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PIKE... EXTREME EAST CENTRAL WHITLEY... BELL... EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL FLOYD AND HARLAN. AT 1125 PM EDT...SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MCROBERTS TO OVEN FORK TO SAND HILL TO ALVA TO CHENOA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF WHITESBURG TO WHITESBURG TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WHITESBURG TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARLAN TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MIDDLESBORO... MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...STANFILL AROUND 1130 PM EDT...YANCEY AROUND 1135 PM EDT...RUTHERFORD AROUND 1140 PM EDT...THREE POINT AROUND 1145 PM EDT...ROCK HOUSE AROUND 1150 PM EDT... RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD. RICHEY
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 88 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:38 UTC.
4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Kentucky Hwy 92 was closed due to high water.
Highway 25W had about 10 inches of water flowing across it.
Verne Rd was impassable due to high water.
Numerous side roads were under water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, September 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 472766, 472768, 472771, 472773.