An unusual cut-off low developed over Arkansas on Saturday, May 4th. The very slow movement of this feature across Tennessee allowed persistent rain to fall over a two day period from May 4th to May 5th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
An unusual cut-off low developed over Arkansas on Saturday, May 4th. The very slow movement of this feature across Tennessee allowed persistent rain to fall over a two day period from May 4th to May 5th. All of central Kentucky received over 2 inches of rain over this time span, with several counties such as Taylor, LaRue, Warren, and Adair, totaling over 3 inches. Minor flooding developed on the Green River several days later.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 6, 8:18 AM CST, 2 hours 42 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1018 AM EDT MON MAY 06 2013 .Forecast Update... Issued at 1015 AM EDT Mon May 6 2013 A temporary clear slot has rotated back northwest across southern Kentucky earlier this morning. At 10 am the only measurable rain, in the form of some light rain, was falling across the Bluegrass and southern Indiana. Light rain or sprinkles will continue east of Interstate 75 north of Lincoln County through the late morning hours The clear to partly cloudy skies across our south will not last long. Relatively steep lapse rates will aid in developing widespread cumulus clouds by mid to late morning. Think that by late morning or early afternoon, some showers will develop; especially over southern Kentucky, where surface based LI's will go slightly negative. An isolated thunderstorm is even possible this afternoon. && .Short Term (Now through Tuesday)... Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon May 6 2013 The large upper level low will stall out across northern GA today and then slowly drift towards the east coast through tomorrow. Early this morning the feed of best moisture is across the northern Bluegrass region of Kentucky. Showers will continue to be widespread across this area through the morning hours. For the rest of the area and for the Bluegrass this afternoon the rain will be more scattered in nature. There is a slight chance for some thunderstorms across the area this afternoon. This will depend on how capped we are. GFS sounding show a good cap in place. However, NAM sounding show less cap and more instability developing. Given this will include isolated thunderstorms in the forecast. Rain will diminish overnight with dry conditions expected across the forecast area after midnight as drier air works in. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again on Tuesday, though coverage should be less than today. The best chance for precipitation will be across east central Kentucky. Temperatures today will remain below normal for this time of year. Highs will top out in the lower to mid 60s. Lows tonight will once again drop into the lower 50s. We will see a bit of a warm up tomorrow with highs topping out in the lower 70s. .Long Term (Tuesday night through Sunday)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 6 2013 By Tuesday evening we will still be well acquainted with the closed upper low, which by that time should be loitering about the eastern Carolinas. Look for a transitional period on Tuesday night as the influence of this cyclone gives way to shortwave ridging aloft. In the absence of synoptic forcing, POPs should be limited to slight chances over the higher terrain of east central Kentucky as the instability fades in the evening. However, partial clearing along with light winds and damp ground will set the stage for at least patchy fog development toward daybreak. Will include the mention for most areas, and let later shifts decide how hard to hit the fog potential. Will continue diurnally driven 20-30 POPs Wednesday and Thursday as the ridging does little to dislodge the moist air mass or stabilize the mid levels. Temps will run slightly above normal, more so at night as clouds and boundary-layer moisture will limit diurnal ranges. Precip appears to be a good bet Friday into Saturday as a cold front hangs up over the Ohio Valley. Have gone with likely POPs through that period, as there has been consistency between models and continuity between runs for a day or two now. As for Sunday, the 00Z GFS has come into line with the 12Z ECMWF in advertising a deep longwave trough over the eastern CONUS, which should drive a strong cold front through the area Saturday night, with a dry Canadian high building in on Sunday. Even though there is good agreement between the models, this solution remains just new enough to limit confidence, so will not completely pull POPs just yet. Will keep a slight chance in, which will prove generous if these models are right. Temps will turn unseasonably chilly yet again, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s as next weekend draws to a close. && .Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 643 AM EDT Mon May 6 2013 Ceilings will continue to be the main issue for the TAFs through the morning hours. LEX and SDF will oscillate between MVFR and VFR cigs through much of the morning. BWG will be between MVFR and IFR or LIFR. All sites should see improvement to more solidly VFR conditions by mid day to early afternoon. Winds will generally be out of the east to east-northeast today and will be sustained at 10-14 knots at LEX and SDF. VFR conditions will continue for most of the night tonight. However, guidance shows some light fog and lower ceilings will be possible towards dawn tomorrow. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. Update...........JSD Short Term.......EER Long Term........RAS Aviation.........EER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1120 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-070745- ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN- PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY- MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY- OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY- HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY- NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY- LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY- EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY- WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY- ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON... JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY... JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG... BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX... MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE... BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN... CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON... PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG... NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE... LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE... GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE... BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE... EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY 1120 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013 /1020 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2013/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS MAY BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL TRACK SLOWLY UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM OUR REGION...ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE. JSD/RAS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain over a two day period ending on May 5th brought minor flooding to the Green River at Woodbury. Flood state at Woodbury is 33 feet. The Green River crested at 34.8 feet shortly before noon on May 7th.
Heavy rains from May 4th to May 5th lead to some minor flooding on the Green River at Rochester Ferry several days later. Flood stage at Rochester is 17 feet. The river crested at 17.7 feet during the early morning hours on the 5th of May.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 439802, 439801.