Flash Flooding and Flood in Kentucky, August 9 to 11, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
530 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO EAST
KENTUCKY AND A BETTER IDEA OF TIMING FOR THIS FIRST WAVE HAVE FINE
TUNED THE POP AND WX GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED THROUGH
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. EAST KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
BOUNDARY WITH MUGGY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN PLACE THIS NIGHT.
CONVECTION HAS RAMPED UP AGAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
DURING THESE PAST FEW HOURS WITH A TRACK TAKING IT EAST NORTHEAST
INTO OUR CWA...INITIALLY AIMING FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA NORTH OF A FLAT RIDGE RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THIS COUNTRY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...FAST AND NEAR ZONAL
FLOW WILL ZIP POCKETS OF ENERGY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NORTHERN TROUGH WILL HELP TO BUCKLE THIS PATTERN LOCALLY PLACING EAST
KENTUCKY IN THE REALM OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND STILL UNDER THE PATHWAY
FOR MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES TODAY AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. THINGS
WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT ALOFT HAVE FOLLOWED
A MODEL BLEND...BUT LEANED MOST HEAVILY TOWARD THE WEATHER SPECIFICS
FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12...AND IN THE NEAR TERM...THE HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONE THAT IS PORTENTOUS FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE WITH HIGH PW AIR...DAYTIME INSTABILITY...A NEARBY SFC
BOUNDARY...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS WILL BE THE CASE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THE SET UP IS
CLEAR...THE ACTUAL EVOLUTION AND TRIGGERS ARE NOT SO MUCH. THIS...
COMBINED WITH THE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS NEGATES ANY HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS THROUGH SATURDAY. NEVERTHELESS...THE EXISTING FFA
APPEARS ON TRACK GIVEN THE POTENTIAL AND ONGOING CONVECTION THAT
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME TRIGGERS FOR CONTINUANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH SIMILAR CIRCUMSTANCES IN
PLACE FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...AN ARGUMENT COULD BE
MADE FOR EXTENDING THE FFA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE
THREAT IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...SO WILL LET
FUTURE SHIFTS DECIDE ON EXPIRATION OR ANY EXTENSION ONCE IT BECOMES
MORE CLEAR HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY TO BE IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT NEAR
70...ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY FOG.

FOLLOWED THE CONSALL FOR TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE FORECAST WITH THE FIRST 24 KICKED OFF BY THE CONSSHORT. DID
MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN TONIGHT GIVEN THE HIGH
HUMIDITY IN PLACE. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET
NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. DEEP
TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WITH RIDGING
NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN ZONAL
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE HIGH HUMIDITY AND STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.  THE CANADIAN TROUGH WILL THEN
DEEPEN AND DROP SOUTHEAST ENOUGH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO
FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE SUSTAINED
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH.

GIVEN THE AGREEMENT...STUCK CLOSE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST. CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING
NEARBY...ALTHOUGH NAILING DOWN THE TIMING REMAINS CHALLENGING...SO
USED MORE OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE. BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY...POPS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY EXITS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...SULTRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE HUMIDITY BEGINS TO SUBSIDE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE BULK OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE NEXT SFC WAVE WILL BRING A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA AFTER 09Z. EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION TO BRING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER CEILINGS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE BEYOND THIS POINT
REMAINS LOW AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE AREA AND
COULD KEEP CEILINGS ON THE LOW SIDE INTO FRIDAY EVENING...ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
420 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-101130-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
420 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SLOW MOVING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH IN TURN COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL OF GREATER THAN AN
INCH...OBSERVED FLOODING...OR HIGH WATER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSON.

GREIF