Flash Flood and Flooding in Kentucky, August 10 to 11, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP AND WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THE ONGOING CONVECTION
IN THE FAR NORTH AND SOME NEWER CELLS GOING UP IN THE CUMBERLAND
VALLEY. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE HRRR MAKES ITS SOLUTION
QUESTIONABLE SO HAVE ONLY PARTIALLY SHADED THE FORECAST TOWARD ITS
IDEAS THAT ARE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z NAM12 AND CURRENT RADAR SCOPE.
ALSO...FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A FRESHENED
ZFP TO FOLLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2 INCHES PER HOUR FAIRLY
COMMON. GIVEN SOME LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN SOME
AREAS...THIS COULD MEAN WE MAY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN SOME
PLACES. THUS...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OPTING TO NOT FLIP FLOP ON ANY WATCH AND JUST ISSUE ANY
WARNINGS AS NEEDED. LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE
UNDER THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR ANY FLOODING. STILL UNCERTAIN WITH HOW
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL PAN OUT...BUT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS LOOKS
VERY ACTIVE WITH LOTS OF RAIN FOR SOME OF THE AREA. WILL UPDATE GRIDS
TO REFLECT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

WITH THE FLOOD WATCH NOW HISTORY...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE RAMPING UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. DO NOT HAVE A REAL GOOD FEEL
FOR HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE ALL HANDLING THIS
SYSTEM VERY POORLY...BUT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...IT LOOKS
LIKE SOME BETTER RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO
THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THIS MAY WEAKEN AS WE LOSE THE
BETTER INSTABILITY...BUT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY...WE MAY SEE STUFF AT LEAST IN THE NORTH STAY
ACTIVE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AGAIN...UPDATED WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION TRENDS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. FOR
NOW...GOING TO UPDATE THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BLEND INTO THE OLD
FORECAST. MAY NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES BEING RECEIVED UPSTREAM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

A LINE OF CONVECTION WAS AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
MID AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
TN. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS QUIET...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WERE
STRUGGLING TO GET GOING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOKED FAVORABLE FOR
ACTIVITY LATE TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS IN THE FORECAST.

HOWEVER...THE BEST SHOT AT RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS IN GENERAL HAVE POINTED TO THIS...BUT HAVE
SHOWN POOR AGREEMENT/CONSISTENCY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIP.
IN LIGHT OF THIS AND HISTORY SINCE THE WATCH WAS ISSUED...WILL CANCEL
THE WATCH WHICH WAS OTHERWISE SET TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. WE ARE NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH THE THREAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
THERE TO WARRANT AN EXTENSION.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN HUNG UP JUST TO OUR NORTH MAY
SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IN
GENERAL IS LIGHTER ON PRECIP AND MOS IS LOWER ON POPS...AND FOLLOWED
THEIR LEAD FOR THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG TERM MODELS. THE CONSENSUS IS
FOR A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...WITH ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT GETTING
DRAGGED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. BASED ON THE OVERALL
MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...ACROSS THE
AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON TAP DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP A BIT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...AND AS A RIDGE STUBBORNLY REMAINS IN PLACE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL FINALLY STRENGTHEN
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK TO PUSH THE FRONT...AND ITS
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK WILL RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND PERIODIC PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT MOST WILL STAY IN THE CLEAR...ASIDE
FROM SOME PATCHY...MVFR FOG. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER IN THE MORNING. ANY OF THESE
STORMS...INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WILL DROP VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
TO MVFR OR BRIEFLY LOWER AT THE TAF SITES. THE CONVECTION OF THE DAY
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN LATER SATURDAY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF ANY
NEARBY STORM...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
459 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-101100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
459 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL OF GREATER THAN AN
INCH IN AN HOUR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON.

HAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1034 PM EDT FRI AUG 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FLOOD            1 E OAKDALE             37.55N 83.50W
08/09/2013                   BREATHITT          KY   PUBLIC

            CREEK WAS OUT OF ITS BANKS. THE LOW WATER CROSSING WAS
            FULL AND PART OF THE ROAD WAS WASHED OUT. HEAVY RAIN CAME
            DOWN AND CAUSED THE CREEK TO RISE FASTER THAN THEY HAD
            EVER SEEN.

&&

JJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1037 PM EDT FRI AUG 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FLOOD            1 W OAKDALE             37.55N 83.53W
08/09/2013                   BREATHITT          KY   PUBLIC

            CREEK WAS OUT OF ITS BANKS. THE LOW WATER CROSSING WAS
            FULL AND PART OF THE ROAD WAS WASHED OUT. HEAVY RAIN CAME
            DOWN AND CAUSED THE CREEK TO RISE FASTER THAN THEY HAD
            EVER SEEN.

&&

JJ