Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 3, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SET
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S(F) NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE 50S(F) ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXES IS EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD
OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING SETTING UP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE TROUGH IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND AN ASSOCIATED DRYLINE WILL EDGE SLOWLY EAST INTO
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS LIKELY CLIMBING FURTHER INTO THE 50S(F) AHEAD OF IT.
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT, STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS
THE CAP ERODES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY DEVELOPING STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE AS CAPE VALUES INCREASE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL, POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF GOLF BALL TO
TENNIS BALL SIZE, AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH NAM AND GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGHER THAN FAVORABLE LCL'S, ENOUGH VERTICAL
SHEAR EXISTS THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT LATER INTO THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT DRAWING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. EXPECT A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN LOW TEMPERATURES FROM
THIS MORNING GOING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 60S(F). FOR TUESDAY, A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A SURFACE LOW AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
COLORADO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO
FILTER DOWN INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS(C) IN CENTRAL KANSAS
TO NEAR 25C IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP
INTO THE 80S(F) TO NEAR 90F TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM MODEL IS SHOWING OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS BUT MAY
BE OVERDONE WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE MOVING UPSLOPE AHEAD OF THESE WAVES. SOME SEVERE WEATHER
WITH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS MODERATE TO
HIGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH MODERATE LAYER WIND
SHEAR WITH A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. FOR WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LOTS OF CLOUD COVER WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS ALSO MUCH WEAKER AS COLDER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES MORE SOUTH
WITH A COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE NEXT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES ALLOWS FOR GOOD RETURN MOISTURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS
SETUP WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A WARM AIRMASS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY TO THE 70S
ON THURSDAY, THEN INTO THE 80S INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE THE COOLEST ON THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 50S, THEN AROUND 60
TO 65 DEGREES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER THAN IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS FOR WINDS, A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN
COLORADO WILL EDGE EAST INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, THEN
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  87  63  71 /  40  30  50  50
GCK  62  85  61  70 /  30  20  40  40
EHA  62  88  60  70 /  40  30  50  50
LBL  62  90  62  73 /  40  30  50  50
HYS  62  80  60  71 /  40  20  40  40
P28  65  87  65  74 /  40  30  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
941 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-041200-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
941 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013 /841 AM MDT MON JUN 3 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING BETWEEN THE
ARKANSAS RIVER AND THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. IN
THIS REGION...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. FARTHER
NORTH...CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO EXIST STARTING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM...MOSTLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60
MPH. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THESE STORMS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DRIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH COULD BE
POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM CDT...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 283.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

AWJ/FK