Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 16, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THE 12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS FEATURED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE HIGH PLAINS REGION WAS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER MIDWEST JET STREAK AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
A SOUTHERN ROCKIES JET STREAK. THIS IS A CLASSIC MCS PATTERN FOR
WESTERN KANSAS IN JUNE SINCE MID LEVEL CAPPING TENDS TO BE WEAK.
ALSO, MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES TENDS TO PROMOTE DAILY
LEESIDE TROUGHING WITH RESULTANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE PLAINS AND AIRMASS RECOVERY. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY LAST NIGHT'S MCS, WITH AN EFFECTIVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW POSITIONED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, A CUMULUS FIELD WAS ALREADY FESTERING IN AN
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 3 PM
AND OTHER AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE ALREADY IN EXISTENCE FROM
COLORADO NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OR CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. ONE OF THESE WAS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA, ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND YET ANOTHER
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE AREA OF CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS WILL LIKELY GROW INTO STORMS AND AFFECT WESTERN KANSAS FIRST,
WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE OTHER AREAS OF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER AND SLOW MOVING STORM CELLS OR WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS
TRACK. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REACH AT LEAST AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT'S LOWS
AND PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER GIVEN ALL OF THE EXPECTED
OUTFLOW, WITH LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN 59 AND 63F. MONDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY OF AIRMASS RECOVERY AS WE GET READY FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF MCS ACTIVITY. WITH SOME SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXES WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
JET IS PROJECTED TO STREAM EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A
DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEE OF
THE ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
STORMS POTENTIALLY DRIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS. RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO THE
DELAYED RETURN OF WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GEM, GFS, AND ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
20C ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. LOOK FOR HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE
80S(F) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN ENSUE WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE
90S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MORE WIDESPREAD 90S(F) TO NEAR
100F ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY STORMS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. AS FOR
WINDS, A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  87  62  83 /  70  10  30  30
GCK  62  87  62  82 /  70  10  40  30
EHA  64  87  62  82 /  50  10  40  40
LBL  64  88  63  82 /  60  10  40  30
HYS  62  86  62  82 /  50  10  30  30
P28  65  86  64  84 /  70  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
528 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171030-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
528 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013 /428 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
THESE STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FORM IN TO A MCS OVERNIGHT AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST FROM MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY STORMS
WILL BE SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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