Hail in Kansas, April 9, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS IN THE WARM AIR OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND DROP SHARPLY.
CONCORDIA STILL ONLY 40 DEGREES THIS HOUR WITH 30S NOT FAR WEST.
THE MAIN LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD.

WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD SO QUICKLY AND A WARM MID LEVEL
CAP STILL IN PLACE...EXPECT MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE GENERATED
ABOVE AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES. THIS BRINGS THE WIND AND
TORNADO THREAT DOWN CONSIDERABLY...BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR
LOWER END SEVERE HAIL.

THE SECONDARY CONCERN REMAINS THE COLD DOME MOVING INTO THE AREA.
WHILE THE WARM NOSE REMAINS NEARLY 10C...THE COLD NOSE NEAR 910MB
COOLS TO NEARLY -4C...AND WILL BE ABLE TO REFREEZE PRECIPITATION AS
IT FALLS THROUGH THE COLD AIR...PARTICULARLY FOR SMALLER DROPLETS.
WHILE CONVECTIVE CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING...BROAD ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN A SATURATED LAYER NEAR 295K COULD MAKE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY ACROSS OUR
NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED SOUTH
AND EAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES MAKE THEIR
WAY EASTWARD. EXPECT TO SWITCH TO SLEET TOWARD SUNRISE AND DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE. HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT MUCH OUT OF THE 30S WEST TO
LOW 40S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

UPPER LOW DEEPENS RATHER QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH MAIN TROF
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE REMAINING IN ITS WAKE. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE
IN MAINLY NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
ANYTHING BEYOND VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY. UPPER LOW
EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY THOUGH LOW CLOUD
CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE RATHER PREVALENT AND WITH THE AREA
RECOVERING FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND HIGHS WILL
STILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S WITH GOOD MIXING. SOME MODIFICATION WILL
OCCUR FOR FRIDAY WITH INCREASING INSOLATION AND WEAKER WINDS.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO SLIDE IN LATE SUNDAY. THE WINDOW FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH THIS
FRONT IS NOT LARGE...BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. A SECONDARY COLDER AIRMASS THEN COMES IN
BEHIND A DEEPER SHORTWAVE AROUND TUESDAY WITH AT LEAST MINOR CONCERN
FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTRY WEATHER AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS DIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBS SHOW THE FRONT MOVING MUCH
FASTER THAN MODELS PREDICTED. ATTM...EXPECT FROPA ACROSS MHK BY 19Z
AND TOP/FOE BY 23Z. DO EXPECT SOME TSRA DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH THE
SPEED AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...A WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE EVENT
FOR THE TERMINALS BEGINS TO COME INTO QUESTION. UPSTREAM SFC OBS
SHOWING IFR CONDITIONS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH REDUCED VSBY TO
AROUND TWO MILES WITH FOG. FOLLOWED SUIT FOR THE TERMINALS AFTER
FROPA. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO LEAD TO FZDZ FOR MHK BY 07Z AS
MUCH COLDER SFC AIR FILTERS IN.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ008-009-
020-021-034.

&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...BYRNE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
210 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-101915-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
210 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS IS GENERALLY
FOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO TOPEKA...AND STORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 4 AND 10 PM. THERE COULD BE LARGE HAIL
AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 60 MPH.

WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ON MAINLY EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

WOLTERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
403 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

KSZ035-092130-
DICKINSON-
403 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DICKINSON COUNTY...

THROUGH 430 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTH AT 45 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN DICKINSON COUNTY. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE SOLOMON...ABILENE...ENTERPRISE...
TALMAGE...MOONLIGHT AND MANCHESTER. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 267 AND 283 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9736 3913 9700 3870 9720 3873 9738
      3884 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 197DEG 39KT 3882 9728